A Progressive Majority in 2008 pt 1

In North Carolina we have a problem. While we control the State House and State Senate, we have some Democrats who are closer to Republicans than anything else. When you are conservative on social matters, and a moderate on economic issues, I dont know what else to call someone besides a DINO.

Personally I dont really want to spend time worrying about which Democrats deserve to be primaried and which dont. I think that process is often counter productive.

However, we need more Progressive Democrats, and we need to give some allies to the friends that we have in the General Assembly. So, walk with me as I take a look at some districts worthy of attention.

I am not going to talk about incumbent Democrats this time through. However, I will say that a few incumbents might be retiring, leaving us with a bunch of good opportunities. More on that as information is available. This diary is just about Senate Republican Incumbents.

Expect diaries on possible open seats in the Senate and House, along with a House Incumbents analysis later.

District 2
This district is made up of Craven, Carteret and Pamlico counties. New Bern is the center of the district in more ways than one.

The Second District was held by Democrat Scott Thomas, until he left to become a District Attorney. Before the 2006 session, Pete Bland was appointed to fill the rest of the term. Pete is a former Sheriff of the least populated of the three counties that make up this district.

However, the Republicans, coming off a close 2002 race, and a 2004 rematch that was 'spoiled' by an independent candidate put up a strong contender. Jean Preston. Jean Preston had been a 7 term House candidate before running for Senate, representing a good chunk of the Senate District.

In 2006, Jean Preston spent almost a half million dollars on this race, winning 28,340 votes. Pete Bland raised a small amount of money on his own, and relied in large part on the largess of the Senate Caucus. His campaign spent a whopping three quarters of a million dollars, and won 21,000 votes.

This is an incredibly close district, and the incumbent in 2008 will be protected and well known. The chance of winning this back is small, but not impossible.

District 12
This district covers Johnston and the more Republican parts of Wayne County.

Fred Smith is running for Governor, and this will therefore be an open seat. Fred won in 2006 by a large margin against Sherry Altman. It didnt help that Smith spent around a million dollars to blanket the Raleigh media market with his face, while Altman spent only 26,000 for her entire campaign.

As we know from Leslie H's writings, Johnston County is undergoing large amounts of growth, meaning that the issues are changing, and the Republicans there will start focusing on economic issues over social issues.

This district will be ignored by just about everyone, making it a perfect opportunity for a grassroots-powered progressive willing to spend all of 2008 knocking on doors and meeting people. Look for a vitriolic Republican primary to help us out here.

The next two districts are in Wake County, and its a little embarrassing that we dont control them.
District 15
This northern Wake County district was a lot closer than anyone thought. Gerry Bowles entered the race very late, which did not help her efforts. Neal Hunt still managed to raise and spend a half million dollars, although there was a large amount of that given to other Republicans. Bowles spent less than 23,000 dollars. And yet, Hunt got 31,478 votes to Bowles 25,854.

This is a ripe pickup opportunity for us. Northern Wake County is full of new growth and new voters. Neal Hunt is not exactly a mainstream Republican. BlueNC and Progressives in general could be a huge force in this race.

District 17
Southern Wake County is a much more difficult place to run. However, in 2006 we had NO CHALLENGER in this race. That any Republican can run unopposed ever is disgusting.

This will not be an easy race, but we have a great chance. Just as importantly, a strong challenger knocking on doors here would help candidates like Ed Ridpath pull off a grassroots upset in the House.

This next district I knew too well, having run that campaign from June through September.
District 42
This district is comprised of Catawba county, with a small part of Iredell. It has been represented since 1984 by Austin Allran, a Senator who defines career politician.

This area is considered to be heavy Republican, with Allran going 12 years before 2006 without a challenger. It is hard to say how much of a pickup oppurtunity this really is, but I will say that Allran is not very popular, and not at all useful.

He has never really been forced to fundraise, and could be taken out. The biggest problem is that the bench is very short in Catawba County, no Democrat having won county-wide in over 20 years.

This is a district I cant really be objective about, so I will let others look into it if they are so inclined.

The rest of these districts I know much less about. All of these districts had unopposed Republicans in 2006. We can fix that.

District 29
Jerry Tillman represents this rural district which is comprised of Randolph and Montgomery counties. Although Montgomery is not a huge part of this district, with Larry Kissell being from the county, it is sure to get a lot of attention in 2008, helping us out immensely. While Randolph county would be tough, this is not an impossible seat, just a tough one. When added on to the national attention part of this area could get, there is a good chance that the right candidate could knock enough doors to get a win. This is an especially important race to have a challenger in, because a quick glance at his filings shows Tillman to be a medium-level fundraiser for the Republican Caucus.

District 30
This district is along the north border, and is extremely rural. It comprises Stokes, Surry, Yadkin and Alleghany counies. Don East was unopposed in 2006, and won by about 2-1 in 2004. His lack of opposition prompted him to spend something under 5,000. In 2004 his finances are a little hard to look at, but he spent somewhere around 30,000 dollars to defeat a guy who appears to have run for House before the Senate, and only spent around 4,000 dollars.

This is a definite chance for a low funded grassroots campaign.

District 31
Pete Brunstetter represents this district, which comprises the large part of Forsyth, most of which does not include Winston-Salem. This is an incredibly difficult district, but hey, surprises happen.

Brunstetter was appointed to fill this seat after the death of Ham Horton, and therefore has never faced opposition. However, Ham Horton had no opposition in 2004 and only a Libertarian in 2002. He did however spend almost a quarter million dollars in 2006, almost all of it paid to "The Stewart Group" for "Advertising".

District 33
This district is comprised of Davidson county, with a tiny bit of Guilford. I honestly dont understand why Stan Bingham, the incumbent, was unopposed in 2006, but apparently he was also unopposed in 2002 and 2004. This is a serious problem, because anyone with such little opposition can spend 100% of their cash on other candidates.

Now, he only raised 50,000 in 2006, so he isnt helping spend a lot of cash, but there is no way we should be giving him such a free pass. Although the numbers show this would be a very difficult district, a lazy, overconfident incumbent could be the trick.

District 35
This district is all of Union and a small chunk of Mecklenburg. Union is having a lot of growth, but in this case the growth might not be great for a Democratic candidate.

Eddie Goodall had a write in opponent in 2004, and no opposition in 2006. In 2006 he spent over 100,000 dollars, and it appears that the vast majority of that was given to other people. This would be a very tough race to win.

District 39
Robert Pittenger represents this Mecklenburg County district. The 39th takes in South Charlotte, parts of Matthews and Mecklenburg County. Pittenger would not be an easy target normally, with access to cash and a Republican leaning district. However, his ego might be a little too big, with well publicized spats with Sue Myrick. He doesnt want to be "just" a State Senator, but he wouldnt be able to mount a primary challenge to his (maybe former) friend Sue Myrick.

There are times when walkable districts can turn into huge grassroots upsets with the right candidate. This could be one of those. It could also become very available if Myrick does in fact run for Governor, or if Dole drops out and she runs for Senate allowing Pittenger to run for Congress and this seat to be open. Pittenger's ego could also create a run for Lt. Governor or Mayor, depending upon what Pat McCrory and Patrick Ballantine do.

District 41
This is about the weirdest drawn district in the state, taking in Lincoln County, parts of Gaston and parts of Iredell. The parts of this district are (I believe) the slowest growing sections of Iredell and Gaston, but they are still growing as far as I know.

Jim Forrester is the Senator here, and I know very little about him or this district. What I do know is that Betsy aka Southern Dem will soon be a resident of the district, and might be able to find someone to run. (And no we cant recruit her)

Well, that is all I have for now. Eventually a similar post on the house and posts on potential open seats will be done.

The hope I have is that we, at the very least, are able to find progressive candidates willing to challenge these candidates, and prevent anyone in North Carolina from getting a free ride in 2008.