Holy Mother of Pearl. I can barely catch my breath. Those of you who went through the Kissell campaign ups and downs with me last cycle know just how much I love Larry Kissell. Do you remember those days where we did our best to make something positive out of poll numbers? Those days are over. With name recognition of 78% Robin Hayes is polling 2 points below Larry Kissell in the uninformed poll question with only 1% indicating they would vote for a different candidate.
I'll be adding more in a minute with links and crosstabs and all that lovely goodness you need to rip this poll apart, but for now I'm doing a happy dance and enjoying something we only dreamt about last cycle.
The poll was conducted by the Service Employees International Union and The Center for American Progress Action Fund. You will find the toplines and crosstabs at this link.
The first thing that stands out is that this poll surveyed voters. All those surveyed were registered to vote in the home where they received the call and almost all voted in the 2004 presidential election. This is important since 2008 is another presidential election. A poll of this type is stronger when you are polling likely voters.
Another interesting thing I noticed is that much of the poll was informing about the Democratic healthcare plans vs. Republican and the informed vote poll question for Kissell/Hayes comes after the respondent is informed about the healthcare plans - not after they are informed about differences between Larry Kissell and Robin Hayes. This question shows Larry with an 8 point lead.
I will be digesting these numbers, as I'm sure some of you will as well, and we can meet in the comments to hash it out. At first I thought the poll was a little strong on the number of Dems included, but then I looked at the answers to how they identify themselves and 49% identified as conservative with 33% moderate and only 14% as liberal. That sounds about right for the district.
Look over the numbers at the link above. Just scroll to the North Carolina link. Let me know what you think. Go ahead and throw those wet rags. I'll just catch them and toss them right backatcha. Just about every criticism you can toss at this poll can be said about the polls last year showing Hayes ahead and Larry really far behind. Larry is starting out as the frontrunner and and oh my goodness it feels so good.