BREAKING: Edwards Polling Ahead in Iowa!!!!

polls
Yes, this diary is a little snarky, but just a {little}. I was over at Pollster.com and what I found astounding was this figure, which I have poached a portion of and posted here. You will have to click the picture to see the entire graph. See all those little dots, there are so many and they are so crowded together that you can barely make them out. Those dots? Those are the number of National Polls taken in 2007 for the 2008 Presidential Election. I've been reading here and at MyDD for so long how worthless those polls are, that I hardly bother to look at them. Instead, we all assume that it comes down to the primaries, so here is the next question, how many polls have been taken in 2007 for what is THE first test of the 2008 Presidential Election, Iowa?

A handful.

Want to know who has been leading in every single Iowa poll since 2006? Do you? I'll bet you can guess, but come find out after the break.



February 16-18, 2007
Strategic Vision

John Edwards 24%
Hillary Clinton 18%
Barack Obama 18%
Tom Vilsack 14%
Joe Biden 5%
Bill Richardson 3%
Wesley Clark 2%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 14%

January 19-21, 2007
Strategic Vision

John Edwards 25%
Barack Obama 17%
Tom Vilsack 16%
Hillary Clinton 15%
Joe Biden 4%
John Kerry 3%
Wesley Clark 2%
Bill Richardson 1%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 15%

January 15-16, 2007
Zogby International

Edwards 27%
Obama 17%
Vilsack 16%
Clinton 16%
Biden 3%
Kerry 3%
Kucinich 1%
Richardson 1%
Not sure 13%

December 18-20, 2006
Research 2000 (KCCI-TV Des Moines)

John Edwards 22%
Barack Obama 22%
Tom Vilsack 12%
Hillary Clinton 10%
Al Gore 7%
John Kerry 5%
Wes Clark 4%
Dennis Kucinich 4%
Joe Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Undecided 11%


October 12-19, 2006
Harstad Strategic Research (Environmental Defense)

Edwards 36%
Clinton 16%
Obama 13%
Vilsack 9%
Kerry 6%
Biden 5%
Clark 3%
Richardson 2%

That, is what you call a front-runner. John Edwards has been leading in Iowa since October of 2006.

Before he announced...Edwards was winning.

After he announced...Edwards was winning.

Before Hillary announced...Edwards was winning.

After Hillary announced...Edwards was winning.

Before Barack announced...Edwards was winning.

After Barack announced...Edwards was winning.

But, you might say, the Iowa caucuses are half-election and half-voodoo, with ancient, mystical rules and regulations that would make "Roberts" run in fright! What really matters is how Edwards is doing amongst those wizards and warlocks that understand the intricacies of the caucus!!!

Results (Democratic county chairs, vice chairs)

Edwards 40%
Vilsack 15%
Obama 11%
Clinton 8%

All of this leaves out the most questionable of polls, the ARG, which does a lousy job of polling Iowa. But, even their polls show encouraging results for Edwards. I'll just show the front-runners in Iowa, to give you an example of what I mean.

Likely Democratic Caucus Goers
Dec06 Jan07 Feb07 Mar07
Clinton 31% 35% 31% 34%
Edwards 20% 18% 27% 33%
Obama 10% 14% 23% 16%

Now, no POLL has shown Clinton with a lead, except ARG. Questionable at best, but even if they were smack on, all that means is that Hillary's announcement and campaigning has COST her votes in Iowa. Edwards is now in a statistical dead-heat.

But, but, the national media doesn't cover him!!!! They don't want him to win!!!!

I see what you mean. Kind of like, this guy?

Or, more like this guy?

The difference between Howard Dean and John Edwards is that Edwards has the establishment behind him as well. They both discuss issues in an honest and open way, they both say it like it is, even if that doesn't always work out, but Edwards has the establishment as well. They both had an unmatched internet lead heading into the primaries, but Edwards has the establishment as well.

The similarity between Tester and Edwards is that they are both good, down to earth fellas that were raised in blue-collar families and understand the hardships that they go through. Yes, Tester is still a farmer, and Edwards is wealthy, but for those of us who were brung up that way, we know that once you've lived it, you never forget it. Edwards sways rural voters in a way no Democrat has since Bill Clinton in 1992, 15 years ago.

It's almost like no one wants to poll the places where Edwards is doing the best, which is the early primary states. Instead, they want to do these nation-wide polls that are based on name-recognition, glitz, and glamour, and have no basis in reality.

He's not A front-runner, he is THE front-runner. Because you can win all the national polls you want, but if you lose Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina, you might as well go home. Oh, the number of quality South Carolina polls, those are here below.

....

We all know that "the numbers" are coming out in a few days, and this will color how the race has been run. I think that Edwards will finish above the $7.5 Million goal for the first quarter, how much I don't know, but I do know this. We make a difference.

Edwards for President: $

Comments

Last day for fundraising.

It's all about the sawbuck.

Daily Kos link.


One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

A Few Things

It's important to acknowledge that all those polls are out-of-date, since they still have former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack in the race. According to a recent column from David Yepsen at the Des Moines Register (which cites an ARG poll), Edwards is picking up previously committed Vilsack voters, despite his endorsement of Hillary.

Back in December, I blogged my frustration about national polls not being reflective of the actual nomination process, but now I think you have to give national polls some credence. From the looks of things, there's going to be a national primary on Feb. 5 and these polls are the biggest indicator of what might happen. There's an argument to me made for the domino theory--that Super Tuesday states will fall, as early primary states have--but it's equally as probable (if not, moreso) that the Super Tuesday wall is insurmountable for someone without high name recognition (pre-primary) and a large war chest.

And lastly, I got the wonderful opportunity to witness the Iowa caucuses firsthand in 2004 and it'll probably go down as one of the best experiences of my life. I understand why people, who haven't experienced it, call it "half-election and half-voodoo," but once you've been there, you'll appreciate it as democracy in its purest form. I encourage everyone to save up some vacation days for a trip to Iowa on behalf of your preferred candidate in 2008--you won't regret it.

NY Times Article: A Team Community Gains Strength From Its Weakened Coach

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There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

Good observations

I haven't really been paying attention to the polls - at least what audience they are polling. Are they registered voters, likely voters, Republians? I guess I could go look, but I'm working on something.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Moved from front page by Anglico

I'm thinking a lot about the concerns Graig has about BlueNC and the Edwards campaign. Let's err on the side of keeping presidential politics off the front page unless there's a compelling and specific tie in to NC. We can revisit later.

Okay?

No problem.

Let's say as a starting point, any events in North Carolina, major debates or "forums", etc.
What about voting?

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me