PPP: Kay Hagan vs. Elizabeth Dole

Complete results here. PPP Blog.

Kay Hagan vs. Elizabeth Dole
Dole 46%
Hagan 33%

Hagan does about as expected. Remember that last week our poll found Jim Neal trailing Elizabeth Dole 47% to 32%. Neither starts off with any advantage in polling.

Approval Ratings
President Bush: 41% approve, 53% disapprove
Governor Easley: 51% approve, 32% disapprove
Senator Dole: 45% approve, 36% disapprove
Senator Burr: 30% approve, 34% disapprove OUCH!

What issue is most important to you?
35% War in Iraq
19% Economy and jobs
13% Moral and family values
11% Health care
10% Immigration
5% Education
5% Taxes

Comments

The usual 13% are missing the boat again

if they want government to legislate their moral and family values. Perhaps they should just instill their personal moral values into their family.

It never fails to amaze me how short sighted these family values types are. And how in the world does immigration become more important, by half, as education? Somebody is listening to entirely too much right wingnut radio.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

education

I bet more people think education is important than immigration, but those same people think that the war in Iraq or the economy are also important. But I agree, even 11% is too high for the number of people for whom immigration is the #1 issue.

It's the War Stupid?

What issue is most important to you?
35% War in Iraq
19% Economy and jobs*Poll

Any candiate should be beating the war issue to death. The American people and North Carolina Citizens want out now. They are scare and the economy is going to hell in a hatbox........What is it going to take to make these candiates have balls....

Just an observation:

Hagan does about as expected. Remember that last week our poll found Jim Neal trailing Elizabeth Dole 47% to 32%. Neither starts off with any advantage in polling.

Frankly, both Kay and Jim (and the other guy) have trouble with name recognition, compared to the way Dole made her entrance. Sure, Jim knows a lot of politicos, and Kay is well known amongst Greensboro-ites and those who closely follow General Assembly business (all twelve of you), but state-wide, general public type exposure? Nah. But that is going to change, real soon.

Liddy's been getting a free pass for too long, and it's time all North Carolinians are made aware of her job performance.

That's about what we thought

But I'd like to point out that PPP is not an especially reputable polling firm in my opinion.

They also don't seem to disclose their methodology, troublingly enough. PPP follows the same marketing approach as Survey USA does. Drop cheap polls frequently in order to gain publicity and take advantage of hot issues. Quality data be damned.

Can I try?

PPP uses voter rolls to determine who to call. You use automated dialers and use robo-polls. You use extra questions at the end that arent published to ensure that people are who they say they are. You publish full questions and full crosstabs.

The only thing I dont know are what sort of questions are used to establish what a likely voter is. But very few polling groups put that out there.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

I owe you an apology

I confused your organization with Crone/Sinclair's recent outfit. My sincerest apologies for accusing your organization of disreputability.
A friend of mine who's commissioned your firm in the past e-mailed me and told me I was wrong in the head for saying that. They also agreed with me that you were cheap, but cheap in a good way :)

thank you

No worries. :)

PPP Value and Reputation

Our campaign has used PPP in the past and we've been quite happy. We can argue about whether automated telephone polling is better/worse than a real person asking the questions and taking answers, my opinion is that the 2-4 times cost is not worth the extra level of accuracy (if any). And when you are talking a small state house race, not much is gained by spending loads of cash on polling then not having the budget to use what you've learned.

I think the speed and frequency of the public polls PPP shares provide a great value to the community. And as Justin pointed out, they are very accurate, as I recall in the 2006 Bond issue results came much closer than other polls out at the time.

---
Ed Ridpath
www.EdRidpath.com

---
Ed Ridpath
www.EdRidpath.com

How do you use polling results?

Ed -

As a candidate, how do you use polling data? Have you ever found yourself changing your position on an issue because of how it polls among your (desired) constituents? How does polling data help you?


Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Use of Polls

For the most part, not for horserace numbers or tracking like national polls - lucky if we get to do 2 polls the entire campaign, and they are done way too early to really predict outcome.

No, the greatest use was to test message and issues. Your question was a little bit of a setup, positions don't change as a result of poll. Which issues/positions resonate with the voters and can be emphasized and which demographic group can be targeted with which message all fall out of a good poll.

---
Ed Ridpath
www.EdRidpath.com

---
Ed Ridpath
www.EdRidpath.com

setup

Your question was a little bit of a setup lcloud! :)

- - - - -

It's a Year Away

You can't base a poll from today on an election that is a year away. One week in politics is all it takes for a candidate to gain huge momentum or tank altogether.

Carolina Politics Online

Or a day....

Very important point about both her vulnerability, our candidates' strengths and the final outcome.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Radar screens

What's the qwerty symbol for a teardrop?

What issue is most important to you?
35% War in Iraq
19% Economy and jobs
13% Moral and family values
11% Health care
10% Immigration
5% Education
5% Taxes

Civil liberty/Human Rights - not on the radar for folks.

perhaps the question wasn't asked?

I didn't go look at the survey, but maybe "Civil Liberty/Human Rights" wasn't in the list of choices given.


Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Thanks for the lifeline.

I think I 'll hold on to it for a while.

At least Feingold, Tester and Dodd seem to be on the job in one of the places that it matters most.

teardrop is right

qwerty for teardrop is indeed needed

I'd love to see a poll on how many people even know that this document exists.

Sad to think how few human rights the GOP will stand up for, especially considering the US signed onto the UDHR over 50 years ago.

- - - - -

I've seen that document before...

Gonzo was using it to light Cheney's cigar. Condi was folding up the Bill of Rights to level out one of her piano legs or I'm sure Gonzo would have used it instead.

SE NC Dems

Stan Bozarth

Best Democratic Senate candidates would be...

...David Kirby or Heath Shuler.

I think either of them would easily defeat Elizabeth Dole.

We are trying to win an election, not make a statement. I guess the fact that Hillary Clinton is leading nationally is making the NC Democrats believe that they have to run a woman just because Dole is female.

From what I have seen of Hagan, I was not all that impressed. Some people just have the "It factor." She doesn't seem to have it.

Kirby or Shuler could have it in a statewide election.

I think Shuler could be a better Senatorial candidate than he was for the House.

Ugh

David Kirby has said time and again that he wont be running for anything this year. He has made a commitment to John to put everything he has into winning the White House, why ask him to stop doing that? Personally if I had to choose one or the other I would say getting John Edwards into the White House is a much more important task.

Shuler isnt even worth a response.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Ditto


"If boiling people alive best served the interests of the American people, then it would neither be moral or immoral." Max Borders, Civitas Institute

Double ditto

Shuler's barely a Dem from my perspective. Wrong on hate crimes, wrong on any LGBT issues, supporter of womb control, the list goes on and on.

--
Pam Spaulding
Durham, NC USA

Pam's House Blend
www.pamshouseblend.com

--
Pam Spaulding
Durham, NC USA

Pam's House Blend
www.pamshouseblend.com

Ms. Blend . . .

Did you see this analysis in the Southern Political Report

The inside story, according to one Raleigh source, is that both Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and ex-Gov. Jim Hunt (D-NC) had asked Hagan to stay out of the race in favor of state Rep. Grier Martin (D). Hagan agreed to step aside for Martin. Then Martin, son of popular former Charlotte congressional candidate D. G. Martin, backed out, leaving Neal as the only significant contender.

Schumer and Hunt then went back to Hagan, an influential member of the state senate, and asked her to get back in the race. Moreover, given that Neal, 50, though a North Carolinian by birth and education, had lived in New York and Los Angeles until a year ago, there is some doubt about whether he would be a strong nominee even were he not gay. (Neal has, however, raised money for Tar Heel Democrats in the past.)

Another informed Raleigh source tells essentially the same story, but adds that once Martin bowed out and some Democratic powers-that-be found out that Neal is gay -- which was known to his friends and family but not to the public at large -- “they intensified their pressure on Kay” to get back in the race, “for fear that [Neal] would bring down the rest of the ticket.” A Charlotte source adds, “I’m sure that some people see [being gay] as a non-starter in North Carolina.”

Since this report uses unnamed sources, I will too: My sources completely confirm this last paragraph. Anyone who says that Neal being gay was not a factor in the Establishment scramble is lying.

thank you

People who are trying mightily to make this only about his lack of political experience or name rec (that doesn't wash, given that last poll) are indeed lying.

--
Pam Spaulding
Durham, NC USA

Pam's House Blend
www.pamshouseblend.com

--
Pam Spaulding
Durham, NC USA

Pam's House Blend
www.pamshouseblend.com

of course it doesnt wash

PPP had already done polls with everyone "known", and Hagan did worse than many others.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Any theories on why Hagan

did so poorly?
 
News of the 10th district: See Pat Go Bye Bye,

I don't think Hagan did poorly,

And neither did Neal. Neither have name recognition statewide. Hagan is just one of 50 in the state Senate. A senate districts is the equivalent of 16 people in a survey of 800, You shouldn't expect anymore out of anyone who hasn't been a statewide elected official.

Besides, Hagan's initial advantage is institutional -- Democratic Party ties, etc-- not in public opinion. That could follow, of course.

"some"

you read right over that word. "Some"

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

This really makes me ashamed.

of my Party.


Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

I understand your comment

though I would expand it to say that I am really ashamed of my state, North Carolina. Waaaaayyy too much outdated thinking.

Person County Democrats

I actively oppose gerrymandering. Do you?

I understand what you're saying

I guess the reason I'm ashamed of my party (as opposed to the entire state) is that I expect the Democratic Party to lead on progressive issues. I don't expect, nor do I want, to be associated with any group, at any level, that has relegates some citizens as "not good enough.".

This kind of alleged back-room scrambling is embarrassing, not transparent, and smacks of game-playing that makes me ill.

I'm not sure I'm ready to dump my registration - and mine certainly wouldn't be noticed statewide the way Anglico's was. I feel like I can make a difference within the Party at a local level. Indeed, I feel I already have. But I've been working with teens - and you know, for them, everything is so clear - at least this group. How can I keep myself encouraged to encourage them? They are the ones who will ultimately drive out the outdated, backwards thinking. But will they stick around long enough to do that?

/ramble off.


Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

The answer is quite simple for me actually ..

... everytime an Anglico (or lcloud) leaves the NCDP the party becomes that much less progressive, that much less likely to stand on principles we hold dear. And especially in your case, that much less likely to pass progressive values onto the next generation.
I am not sure if A. or you were SEC members in 2005, but getting Jerry Meek elected Chair was a huge development for the NCDP. The good ole boys didn't get their guy in, even though they attempted a rather vicious smear campaign aimed at Jerry.
Voters in NC, dems included, have a decided conservative streak. That will not change overnight. it can change over years, but that change will be delayed if progressive advocates move to the sidelines in the game of party politics.

Person County Democrats

I actively oppose gerrymandering. Do you?

Well said

I was there in 2005 and I voted for Jerry. This was after receiving personal calls from Gov Hunt and Sen Edwards on behalf of Ed (whom I also like).
I stuck with Jerry because he stuck with us. He was there advocating for the grassroots activists. He was there writing voter protection plans for the state to make sure every vote was counted. He is a good man and voting him in to office was one of the best things I've even done for this state. The party has moved to the left as I hoped it would since he took over.
I think progressive and grassroots activists have made considerable inroads in to the party structure over the last few years. To throw it all away because of this, or anything, if self-defeating.
Just look at this blog. Who were any of you six years ago? Now you are a voice to be reckoned with by the powers that be in this state. Are you willing to give that up? Are you willing to give up on all of those people who are counting on you to fight for a more progressive party, state, and country?
I hope not.

I think progressive and

I think progressive and grassroots activists have made considerable inroads in to the party structure over the last few years.

Making inroads into the party structure? Fair enough. Jerry's been a breath of fresh air and his staff hires have been impressive. But show me how that's made a difference on the street? I'm serious. Show me.

What street?

I'm not sure what you're referring to or what you're looking for exactly.

Jerimee is reaching out to you and yours every day on the NCDP's dime. There are organizers in every region of the state now. Dems may loose at the federal level over and over again, but we've taken back the state legislature and have held the governor's mansion for most of my lifetime. I'm not on the Democratic party dime (any more) so I'm not going to try and spin anything, but what exactly are you looking for? I'm curious...

Nevermind, Isabel

This is a pointless discussion and I'm too sick (literally) and tired to deal with it. This isn't about Jerimee or the NCDP staff. They're not in charge of anything and you know it.

I disagree about me . . . though it may be different for Linda

I was "in" the party for 40 years. And while I've attended some meetings and worked on committees every now and then, I didn't really participate much at the organizing level. I mostly did fundraising and marketing, which are my strong suits.

In the past I supported D's because they were D's. My first big fundraiser, for example was for Mike Easley when he was running for AG. I've also supported Roy Cooper, Jim Hunt, Beverly Perdue, and scores of other House, Senate and Council of State candidates. In retrospect, I wasted a boatload of money

Looking ahead to the next cycle, I will contribute time, advice and money to five Congressional candidates, one Senate candidate, one Presidential candidate, one State Treasurer candidate, one Lieutenant Governor candidate (to be determined), one Town Council candidate - and probably any other progressive who asks. I will NO LONGER support candidates who represent (1) the Democratic party establishment or (2) who reject basic progressive values.

If that's what you call moving to the sidelines, well, I'm happy to leave the field. And if you think 40 years is overnight, well, we have a really different sense of time.

Is the Democratic party better than the Republican party? Of course it is, but not by the grand margins I used to think.

And good things have happened in those 40 years ..

Forty years ago Jim Crow was alive and kicking in NC. When my family's station wagon pulled off I-95 in Fayetteville in 1971 there was a billboard for the KKK right there. It was tattered but plainly visible. Forty years ago schools were segregated, forced sterilization was going on and the state (and NCDP) was run (ruled?) exclusively by white men. God forbid a mixed race couple appeared in public.
Back then gender and racial equality were issues that needed attention and hard work. Those dedidated souls like yourself are the ones who leveled (mostly) the playing field for women and african americans. Now sexual preference is the civil rights issue du jour.
It is certainly your option to leave the NCDP; you've done your bit for sure. I find it more effective to work both angles, from inside the NCDP and as a concerned citizen in general.
However halting and stuttering the progress on gay rights may be, NC democrats are the only statewide institution that is capable and positioned to make such progress a reality.

Person County Democrats

I actively oppose gerrymandering. Do you?

Fair enough

I've participated in many different protests in my life . . . from marching and carrying signs to boycotts and petitions and more. Some have had the desired effect, some have been exercises in futility. This is just another protest.

Let's both keep working in our own ways and see what happens.

We will for sure!


"If boiling people alive best served the interests of the American people, then it would neither be moral or immoral." Max Borders, Civitas Institute

It is a struggle I have constantly.

I had to move to the right to register as a Democrat. And I agree, we have to keep progressive voices strong - especially in the NCDP. I have hope that the Progressive Democrats of NC will get their sh*t together and actually start doing something.

But I agree with you, persondem. I don't want to leave, particularly because all politics are local, and it's at the local level that I can have the most effect. This is what I'm working with our small teen group on. (These kids know more about Transfer Taxes and School Bonds than I ever did when I was that age.)

I can't leave them behind, and I won't. But I struggle with it.


Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Triple ditto

I've slapped myself silly for working to get him elected. Better than his predecessor...but that's not saying much.
SE NC Dems

Stan Bozarth

Only He Could Win It

It's not Shuler's job to be a Dem from "your perspective". His job is to represent his constituency which is a socially conservative one. A Dem from "your perspective" is incapable of winning that Congressional District.

It's no different on the Republican side. A lot of conservatives complain about Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins being too liberal, but do you think a staunch conservative could get elected to the U.S. Senate from the State of Maine? No way, but those two can and continue to get reelected because they represent their constituency.

This is what ideologues don't understand. You run on principle when at all practical, but in some cases it's not and you have to take what you can get. Heath Shuler votes more in your favor than any Republican ever would. Either take what you can from him or get nothing.

Carolina Politics Online

Ditto Pam et al

Shuler needs to rethink his morality before he runs for higher office. After all, saying homosexuality is "against his religion" tells all of us that a) he doesn't understand the separation of church and state and b) his religion is contributing to him worrying more about judging people's sex lives than that Americans are killing innocent Iraqis and also dying in a war he pledged to bring to an end.

And I'm assuming it's his so-called morals that led him to promote a law about movies in airplanes the very week the House was dealing with the war. Again, those morals might need some perspective adjustment before he runs outside NC-11.
 
News of the 10th district: See Pat Go Bye Bye,

Nice work


"If boiling people alive best served the interests of the American people, then it would neither be moral or immoral." Max Borders, Civitas Institute

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