Two wildly different polls from SUSA and PPP

Just what does the race look like here in North Carolina? Well, Survey USA and Public Policy Polling offer two wildly different assessments.

SUSA, in cooperation with ABC11 in the Triangle, has McCain up to an improbable 20-point lead over Obama. I say "improbable" because in looking at the internals, this poll makes absolutely no sense. PPP sounds a bit more realistic even if you allow for the fact it's a partisan Dem poll--McCain up four.

I knew right away that something smelled about the SUSA poll when I saw a brief writeup about it on ABC11's Website. The same outfit has Obama only down two in Virginia in a poll taken around the same time. And the internals prove it. The partisan breakdown for the SUSA poll is 41% Repubs/40% Dem. How else do you explain McCain up three among young people and up 11 in the Triangle and Triad? If I were ABC11, I'd be hanging my head in shame over this one.

PPP's numbers make a little bit more sense. I expected McCain to end up with somewhere between a five- and eight-point lead with the bounce, so four points isn't too far off. One encouraging sign from the PPP poll is that Obama and McCain are in a flat-footed tie in the suburbs (Obama 48, McCain 47)--an area where you'd expect Palin to make more of a difference. And the Palin pick appears to have made no difference at all among women.

Comments

SUSA

ABC 11 probably didn't even look at the results. It's rip and read all the way with TV news ... don't spend a minute actually thinking about how screwed up the sample is. I'm not sure exactly what the registration advantage of D's is in North Carolina, but a poll that shows R's and D's in equal representation is pure, unadulterated bullshit.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's part of the grand conspiracy that Max always worries about.

Latest numbers from Marshall's office

2,690,910 Dems (45.3%)
1,942,232 Reps (32.7%)
1,303,207 Indies (21.9%)

So where in the world did SUSA get their sample? I usually like their polls, but they dropped the ball on this one.

Comments via email from Perdue campaign

There is a lot of new polling data circulating this morning and there are a few important stories raising serious doubts about yesterday’s WTVD / Survey USA “poll.” Here is an update:

FIRST: We just got back the results of our internal polling and it is good news for our campaign.

Bev Perdue 46
Pat McCrory 40

Read the polling memo: http://bevperdue.com/journal.asp

SECOND: Public Policy Polling released a new poll this morning that has Bev leading McCrory:

Bev Perdue 41
Pat McCrory 40
Michael Munger 6

PPP press release here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_910.pdf

THIRD: Pollster.com analyzed the recent Survey USA poll and suggests that there’s a major error in the Survey USA methodology: “In other words, in a survey conducted less than a month later, Democrats made up 6% less of the sample and Republican representation increased by 8%. Everything we know about partisanship suggests that such massive shifts over such a short period are highly unlikely.”

You can read the post here: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/about_that_north_carolina_poll.php

Zach Ambrose
Campaign Manager

_____________________________________

Jesus Swept, so you can come clean.

They're absolutely correct,

They're absolutely correct, the SUSA poll should be entirely discounted across the board. They're a respectable group but I'm just not sure how this poll even saw the light of day, considering it had McCain up by 20.

Terrible poll.

I, too, don't understand how anyone could stand by that poll, but I'm surprised by a lot these days.

Keep in mind that PPP was pretty much SPOT ON with ALL primary numbers, and SUSA was double-digits away. That should keep things in perspective.