Grier
Rumors continue to fly that the two likely challengers to Liddy Dole - Grier Martin and Kay Hagan - are carefully weighing their options and close to making a decision. Both have made the rounds in Washington, sizing up the Party leadership, and being sized up by those controlling the campaign coffers for Senate candidates.
The Soup this morning cites "DC sources" in arguing that the two possible candidates are eager to avoid a primary. I don't know who those DC sources are, but their information doesn't match what I've heard. Maybe the all-knowing DSCC doesn't want a primary, but I'd be thrilled to have one. It would be a fair and clean contest, and the winner would be battle-hardened and even more prepared to take on Dole.
For all the political calculations The Fly (at the Soup) and its DC connections have to offer, they somehow manage to gloss over the single point that matters most. The US Senate election in North Carolina next November will be about one thing and one thing only: Bush's war in Iraq.
The DSCC is currently weighing which candidate will mount the best campaign. On the plus side for Martin is his resume -- an Army reservist and veteran of Afghanistan -- giving him credibility to attack Dole on Iraq. However, he’s an unproven fundraiser. On the plus side for Hagan is the belief she could raise a lot of money quickly, based on her family and business connections, and her family and energy would be a contrast to Dole. Look for party insiders to nudge one of these candidates aside in the next few weeks.
I've never had a lot of confidence in the DSCC to weigh anything, and if this blog posts reflects the sophistication of their thinking about this race, that level of confidence would drop to zero.
Fortunately, both Hagan and Martin seem infinitely more thoughtful and sane than the political string-pullers buzzing around them. I'll back either of them in the general, and would be happy to see them compete in a primary. If it comes to that, I'll support Grier Martin - for two reasons. First off, he'll win. And second, he's the right person to call out Liddy Dole on her deplorable record.
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You know I love you
but you don't get battle-hardened from a fair and clean contest. :)
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
Okay
But both would have risen to the test of a statewide campaign, which is hard enough all by itself.
I get your point, though.
Would have?????
Duuuuude, check your tense. Both can, will, are capable of kicking ass statewide!
:)
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
What, you've never played soccer? ;-)
1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.
Avoiding a primary may be smart this time around
I don't blame anyone for wanting to avoid a primary. It's kinda late in the game, neither has started fundraising yet for senate, while Dole is already sitting on some cash plus plenty of name recognition. If it were me, I'd be eager to go straight into the main battle over a primary. (Afterall, we see how lovely that primary between Perdue and Moore for gov is going.)
Compromise
How about a truly sporting primary in which spending limits were agreed upon by both campaigns...say a million a piece...and a pledge to keep things positive? That would give us in the democratic base a sense that we'd had our say in who our nominee is, and saved the bulk of our cash reserves for the battle royale with Dole.
Both of these folks are great, but times are too delicate for us to end up with a softy democratic appointee who hasn't had to prove themselves to the good people who are going to be fighting for them through November 2008.
A back room deal would strike some of us poorly...I mean, I have my own opinions about the sort of candidate we should float. Grier and Kay are great candidates in radically different packages.
Fascinating problem we've got here in North Carolina this year...
Avoiding a Primary
People had the same misgivings about the DSCC when they nudged Paul Hackett out of the Democratic primary for the Senate seat in Ohio last year. And when the DSCC, in an unprecedented move, endorsed Jim Webb over Harris Miller in the primary in Virginia. No one was bemoaning those political calculations when Webb and Sherrod Brown went onto claim their Senate seats.
The challenge for Martin or Hagan is two-fold: getting their name out statewide and talking about Dole's shortcomings as a Senator. At this late stage, I'm not sure either of them could do that successfully if they had to face a primary challenge.
Moreover, fundraising is going to be problematic. I don't mind a contentious primary. It's an expensive primary that worries me.
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There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracts. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy
Webb or Miller?
Did the DSCC endorse Webb? I thought they were backing Miller - and so Webb's victory was an upset. Or maybe I'm thinking about Tester in Montana.
I think avoiding a primary is the problem
There are a lot of us die-hard Democrats who are getting a more than a little ticked off getting email after email after email from Chuck Schumer and Howard Dean and every other "name" you can think of, asking for money to build a veto proof majority in the Senate. Now we've got 2 - not 1 - 2 possible candidates, and the big boys can't decide who they want to back?
You know how I'll decide who to back? I'll back whoever has the guts to step up and run. I'd be thrilled if Grier Martin runs. I'll be thrilled if Kay Hagan runs. I'll be thrilled if they both run in a primary and We the People get to choose. I understand how scary that must be for a politician, putting yourself out there like that. But this is not for the faint of heart, and neither one of these Democrats is a coward. Martin has literally put his life on the line for his country. Hagan has skillfully represented her district and been a strong supporter of laws that have changed the lives of children in NC.
It's a good problem to have.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Fundraising
Call me naive, but I don't see fundraising being a problem.
Everyone but Liddy knows that Liddy is extremely vulnerable. She's also a lightning rod that will attract all sorts of support for any Democratic challenger. If that challenger were also a major in the Army reserves, the whole national network of Fighting Dems would also come into play.
I'll commit to a six-figure fundraiser for Grier at my house in Chapel Hill, though I might have to fight his mama and daddy for the honors.
I'll be there :)
I don't have much of a figure, though. But I'll serve punch or something. I'll help.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
im sure
he will be ok with more than one...
"Keep the Faith"