Last one standing

When it comes to insight about North Carolina politics, few journalists and pundits can top Jack Betts of the Charlotte Observer. His column today about the governor's race is mostly right, and where it's wrong, he has me to correct the record.

:)

In addition to the two leading Democrats, at least three Republicans are running: former N.C. Supreme Court Associate Justice Bob Orr, state Sen. Fred Smith and trial lawyer Bill Graham. They're all smart, accomplished folks, but the recent trend in N.C. politics is that Democrats win gubernatorial races and Republicans win presidential and U.S. Senate races. And with President Bush's popularity taking a beating over the conduct of the Iraq war, there's an expectation that 2008 will be a good year for Democrats statewide.

There's also a presumption that Perdue is the front-runner in the governor's race -- or at least that it's hers to lose. She is the first woman elected lieutenant governor (twice) in North Carolina, and she hopes to become the first woman elected governor.

The "presumption" that Perdue is the front-runner is actually a matter of fact in these early stages. Perdue has consistently topped Moore in a wide range of polls, with leads varying from a few percentage points all the way up to double digits. But that doesn't mean it's hers to lose. With more than a third of respondents (on average) undecided or oblivious, this race is wide open.

That said, the Moore camp seems to relish the illusion of underdog status. They've been pushing harder and taking the fight to Perdue nearly every day, sending emails to journalists and bloggers who happily report whatever they're handed without much thought at all. Because she waited until October 1 to officially declare her candidacy, Perdue was in the awkward position of taking Moore's shots without aggressively pushing back.

Jack Betts continues with these comments on Perdue's announcement:

But her speech and her delivery were a little flat for an experienced, accomplished politician with a good record on such important issues as education and health care. She has been the No. 2 person in state government for almost seven years.

She'll also need to work on credible accounts of her positions that have evolved over time. Moore's campaign, for instance, has already lobbed verbal grenades about her position on abortion. Perdue says she's supports abortion rights, but Moore's staff has pointed out that funding was virtually wiped out for a statewide abortion fund for poor women in 1995 when Perdue was a key author of the state budget.

Moore has also pointed out that Perdue backed a measure that channels $170 million from the Highway Trust Fund to the state's General Fund, though she now says she wants to end that diversion and keep the money for roads.

Perdue's staffers have fired back at Moore, criticizing his fundraising from money managers who do business with the state. And they point out that when he had the opportunity to stop the diversion of funds in the 1994 legislative session, he voted to keep the transfer intact.

It was only last Christmas (seems like years ago) when I said ...

But I have to tell you, I'm not looking forward to another 18 months of this kind of happy horseshit. And neither are the people of North Carolina. Perdue and Moore are going to rip each other apart - you can see it coming - and the Republicans in the Party of Greed couldn't be happier about it.

... and those words are even more true today. Jack Betts seems to agree:

This kind of push and shove makes their campaigns seem preoccupied with pointing out each other's flaws, as if the public were mostly interested in unwavering devotion to rigid consistency rather than figuring out what's best for the public interest and pushing new ideas.

Unfortunately for We the People, the media just love it when candidates slam each other. Which is exactly why attacks work so well. They get leaked to reporters, they make into newspaper blogs, they go viral throughout the blogosphere, and they eventually spill into print and broadcast news.

I know there's much disagreement here about who would be the better governor. I'm for Perdue, and the more I learn about Richard, the less I like him. Not so much because of his policy positions (they are mostly indistinguishable from Perdue's) but because of his campaign tactics. This race has already degenerated into mud-slinging contest and I don't see anyway that's going to change. The winner in the Democratic primary is destined to be the last one standing.

Which brings me to the final paragraph of Betts' column:

While the Democrats are cutting one another to pieces, the Republican candidates probably are quietly chuckling at the mayhem -- and maybe even talking to voters about serious issues. Who knows -- it might even win them some votes.

For the record, that's a pretty big "maybe" in the last sentence. The Republicans are talking about three things and three thing only: cutting taxes, cutting taxes and cutting taxes. They throw in some happy talk about improving schools, building more roads (for the environment!) and stopping corporate giveaways, but those ideas are just window-dressing for the prime directive of North Carolina Republicans: make sure rich guys get more money.

PS via email: Bob Orr will be holding a press conference tomorrow morning (Monday) to "lay out my proposals for economic development reform." I'm looking forward to hearing what he has to say, and I predict that every candidate will soon be saying something similar. Bob's a smart guy and he's thought this issue through . Unfortunately for him, he's not sufficiently extremist to win the NCPOG primary. But at least his ideas will help shape the debate.