Marshall's margin

I was surprised Marshall lost. I was STUNNED, FLABERGASTED, TOTALLY BAMBOOZLED by the margin. It seems totally out of the realm of possibility. Everywhere the campaign went, the reception was far too good for this to seem possible.
No negative letters to newspapers. No negative media at all. No combative questions at events. A few standing ovations.

So I think no one thing can account for it. Rather, I'd surmise there was a confluence of related and unrelated factors, including, in no particular order:

- Craig, whom I know, did work very hard last time around. He also was a tv weather guy in the district for a number of years. He had more name recognition.
- Craig at times campaigns very well. He's personable, fairly knowledgeable on issues and has some charisma. People who meet him, especially one-on-one or in small groups, like him. Heck, I like him. I offered to work for him last time he ran. I volunteered to help Marshall because I thought Marshall was a great candidate and because Craig didn't get in until the last minute.
- Marshall was a new name, and, as someone else said, his last name is Hispanic. We couldn't attract enough money to do the advertising to overcome the general public's lack of familiarity and perhaps the impression that he was foreign-born. Many people I ran into had no idea how to pronounce A-D-A-M-E.
- The presidential race attracted thousands of voters who undoubtedly had no idea who either Craig or Marshall were. Craig's name came first on the ballot and was familiar to some from tv and from the last campaign and was easily recognizable as American. It made more sense for those with no knowledge to vote for the easy name.
- The party leadership conspiracy mentioned by The Moderate. It was a persistent rumor through the campaign, and as The Moderate said, it was always said to have originated in Pitt. Party leaders privately told Marshall they backed him, but few did so publicly and, in fact, stayed at arms length in some cases. Maybe that's why we couldn't get much money, despite early indications it wouldn't be too difficult.
- Maybe an under-the-radar campaign by blackwater people to military circles.
- Many Democrats in Carteret and elsewhere actually support Jones, some because he has done favors - political, environmental, things related to social security screw-ups, etc.. - and because he turned against the war and is at least a known devil. Maye some voted for Weber BECAUSE he lost so badly last time.

But even if there is truth to all those factors, it's still hard for me to believe, two days after the end, that Marshall lost by 39 percentage points. Just plain strange.

Whatever happened, it's a shame. Marshall is courageous, smart, full of compassion and personable. We need people like him in government.

In the end, though, it probably doesn't matter in terms of the eventual winner in the district. Ranger Joe Mac made a terrific showing against an incumbent in the Republican primary, but the Jones brand name is a strong one in the district, regardless of party. Much as I'd like to see our district blue, it was going to be a big uphill climb for Marshall to beat Jones. Jones will almost surely win. Unless he makes an astounding blunder, he'll probably get plenty of Dem votes because of his anti-war stance and do better in the general than in the primary.

bradford