Neal/Hagan

Senate Switchback: By now, every political junkie in North Carolina is well aware of State Sen. Kay Hagan's (D-Guilford) decision to jump into the U.S. Senate race next year after all. The ongoing topic of speculation has been, why the change now? Some observers have linked Hagan's reversal to the revelation by candidate Jim Neal that he is gay. While CIB has no inside information on that point, we would offer a few observations. First, we think it more likely that Hagan's decision reflects the withdrawal of State Rep. Grier Martin (D-Wake) as a potential candidate. Democratic party insiders were clearly seeking a candidate with elected experience and long-standing in-state residency. Those party forces had been talking up the potential candidacy by Martin, and had been leary of a primary fight between two prominent state legislators. When Martin ultimately declined to run (a decision which surprised many, including CIB), the party forces switched over to Hagan as the strongest candidate possibly still available. By most conventional political measures (starting name recognition among party leaders, experience in public office, initial donor base), Hagan is the stronger candidate in comparison with Neal.

Second, however, Neal remains a credible candidate even though Hagan will be favored. Neal will have the opportunity to convince primary voters that his stance on the issues they care about is closer to what they are seeking in a nominee. We have no doubt that Hagan will be ethical (and smart) enough to avoid playing the sexual orientation card in this contest. (It would be disastrous for her if she tried that in a Democratic primary fight. No Democratic nominee in this contest can afford anything less than a united and enthusiastic Democratic base.) That should make the primary a chance to talk about how we should deal with real policy questions that will have meaning for thoughtful voters—foreign policy, health care, and the environment, to name a few keys. It could even prove a good opportunity for Sen. Hagan to speak on some contemporary questions related to equal rights. We hope and expect that such intelligent, issues-oriented conversation will take place and be the focus of public attention.

Editor: as noted in the teaser this post is an excerpt from Dan Besse's Conservation Insider, (blogged thru sifting-the-sandhills.blogspot.com)
- gf