North Carolina Presidential Primary Primer
Submitted by Betsy Muse on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 11:39am.
It looks like North Carolina will play a part in selecting the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. I realize I might be the only person at BlueNC excited about this, but I think it's good for the state and it's good for the North Carolina Democratic Party. There will be stepped up efforts to register voters and organize GOTV efforts that can be built on for the general election coming from both the Clinton and the Obama campaigns.
With the help of the NCDP the State Board of Elections and a tiny bit of knowledge about my home state, I've put together a guide to the presidential primary as it will work in North Carolina.
North Carolina selects its delegates on a proportional representation system. The following tables show how the delegates are distributed in the system.
| Pledged | ||||||
| Type of Delegate |
Number of Delegates Allocated |
Delegate M/F Allocation |
Number of Alternates Allocated |
Alternate M/F Allocation |
Date of Selection |
Selecting Body and Filing Requirements |
| District-level | 77 | 38/39 | 12 | 6/6 | May 17, 2008 | Congressional District Presidential Preference Caucuses - Notice of candidacy due 4/25/2008 |
| Party Leader/ Elected Official PLEO |
12 | 6/6 | N/A | N/A | June 21, 2008 | State Convention Notice of Candidacy Due 5/30/2008 |
| At-Large | 26 | 11/15 | 7 | 3/4 | June 21, 2008 | State Convention Notice of Candidacy Due 5/30/2008 |
| UnPledged | ||||||
| Type of Delegate |
Number of Delegates Allocated |
Delegate M/F Allocation |
Number of Alternates Allocated |
Alternate M/F Allocation |
Date of Selection |
Selecting Body and Filing Requirements |
| Add-ons | 2 | 1/1 | N/A | N/A | June 21, 2008 | State Convention Letter of Interest to State Party Chair Due 6/6/2008 |
| DNC Members | 9 | 3/6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Automatic |
| Democratic Governor |
1 | 1/0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Automatic |
| Democratic Members of Congress |
7 | 7/0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Automatic |
As you can see from the charts, North Carolina selects most of its delegates based on how each congressional district votes. All other pledged delegates will be assigned based on the same proportions as the popular vote. Is it possible in North Carolina for one candidate to win in delegates while the other carries the popular vote? A close look at each congressional district might help us figure that out.
The following is an outline of our congressional districts and how voting in each might impact the voting and selection of the 77 delegates that are chosen based on the primary results in each congressional district.
1st Congressional District - Rep. G.K. Butterfield, Democrat - 6 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 01 | 369,060 | 251,898 | 66,795 | 50,367 |
Total Voters
Black
White
America
Asian
Multi- Race
Other
Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 01
369,060
180,830
180,342
1,821
444
671
3,087
1,855
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 01 | 369,060 | 1,221 | 329,319 | 38,520 |
North Carolina's 1st Congressional District is located in the northeast corner of North Carolina and has almost the same number of registered African Americans and Whites. The district is about 48% urban and 52% rural. This area of the state has deep roots in tobacco farming with many of the rural areas being fairly densely populated as a result of the labor traditionally required to produce tobacco. The district is about 51% African American and has about 57,000 more women registered to vote than men. The percentage of Democrats who are African American is 63%.
Based on how African Americans are voting in other states we can probably assume that the 1st CD will go for Barack Obama in May. One thing to keep in mind is that this district is more rural and Clinton tends to win in more rural areas. There is no large urban area like Raleigh or Charlotte which makes GOTV a challenge. African American voters from a more rural area might not trend for Obama as heavily as urban voters. One thing Obama has going for him in this area of the state is the endorsement of Rep. G.K. Butterfield. He is very respected and his endorsement will carry a lot of weight.
For some historical perspective, both Gore and Kerry carried the district with 57% of the vote. Butterfield has won with at least 64% of the vote in each election year since the special election in 2002 and his predecessor, Frank Ballance, won with 64% of the vote. This district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Dem +9.
2nd Congressional District - Rep. Bob Etheridge, Democrat - 6 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 02 | 387,945 | 197,341 | 117,457 | 73,147 |
Total Voters
Black
White
America
Asian
Multi- Race
Other
Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 02
387,945
117,654
255,029
1,479
1,109
1,150
8,628
2,890
Total Voters
Hispanic
Not Hisp
Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 02
387,945
4,709
342,536
40,700
North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District skirts around and contains the outskirts of large urban areas, but is still considered slightly more rural than urban. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans however, many of the Democrats tend to vote Republican for national office. This is one of those districts that voted for Mike Easley (D) for governor and Bush for president in the same election year. The 2nd District, like the 1st CD, has also traditionally been tobacco country. It is the home to the largest population of Hispanics in the state. Many came to work in chicken and hog processing plants. There are more Democrats than Republicans and African Americans make up 49% of the Democratic Party.
Again, I think the 2nd is hard to call. If African American voters (rural and urban) go for Obama in the same ratio, and turnout is as high as we've seen in other parts of the country, Obama could carry this district in the primary. If the rural voters go for Clinton in the same numbers, she could make it close. Etheridge lined up behind Edwards like all other NC Democratic congressional members. For some reason I don't see him endorsing either Obama or Clinton.
Bush won the district in both 2000 and 2004. Kerry and Gore each received 46% of the vote. Etheridge won in 2002 with 65% of the vote, in 2004 with 62% of the vote and again in 2006 with 65% of the vote. With a majority of registered Democrats, this district has a Cook Partisan voting index of Rep +3 which should give you an idea of how conservative many Democrats are in the 2nd District.
3rd Congressional District - Rep. Walter Jones, Republican - 4 Delegates
Total Voters
Dem
Rep
Una
Congressional Dist. : 03
409,560
173,523
148,881
87,156
Total Voters
Black
White
America
Asian
Multi- Race
Other
Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 03
409,560
61,158
337,537
775
952
839
6,193
2,106
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 03 | 409,560 | 2,911 | 366,722 | 39,927 |
North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District hugs our beautiful coast. It is overwhelmingly white and while populated with more registered Democrats than Republicans it is also fairly conservative. Like the 1st and 2nd CDs, the 3rd is made up of tobacco and hog farmers and includes the tourist industry fueled by vacationers to the Outer Banks. This district is overwhelmingly white and the Democratic Party is 29% African American.
With a mostly rural electorate it would be easy to guess this district would vote for Clinton, but many Democrats in this district are so conservative they won't bother to vote in the Democratic primary. I think this district goes for Clinton, but the voter registration is misleading and makes it hard to guess.
The 3rd went for Bush with 68% of the vote in 2004 and Jones has had no trouble winning election each year. The 3rd has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep +15.
4th Congressional District - Rep. David Price, Democrat - 9 Delegates
Total Voters
Dem
Rep
Una
Congressional Dist. : 04
512,874
231,277
151,010
130,587
Total Voters
Black
White
America
Asian
Multi- Race
Other
Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 04
512,874
93,600
389,149
947
7,255
2,105
13,559
6,259
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 04 | 512,874 | 5,266 | 449,140 | 58,468 |
Congressman David Price is a strong progressive leader in North Carolina's 4th CD. While the district is considered the 3rd most Democratic district in the state, it is home to Chapel Hill which is arguably one of the most liberal cities in the state. The 4th is home to Duke, UNC-Chapel Hill and the Research Triangle Park. This district has one of the highest concentrations of Ph.D.s in the nation and many of their jobs tend to rely on government funding. The 4th is about 83% urban. The liberal havens of Chapel Hill and Durham are balanced somewhat by the heavily Republican suburbs of Raleigh. The district is pretty overwhelmingly white with the Democratic Party being 34% African American voters.
With all these facts in mind and looking at the voting in other states it is easy to imagine this district will vote heavily for Barack Obama.
The 4th went for both Kerry (55%) and Gore (53%). This district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Dem +6.
5th Congressional District - Rep. Virginia Foxx, Republican - 5 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 05 | 421,847 | 145,258 | 194,361 | 82,228 |
| Total Voters | Black | White | America | Asian | Multi- Race | Other | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 05 | 421,847 | 27,481 | 386,976 | 439 | 782 | 619 | 3,549 | 2,001 |
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 05 | 421,847 | 2,194 | 388,136 | 31,517 |
North Carolina's 5th Congressional District spans from the suburbs of Winston-Salem to the small town of Mt. Airy. There are areas of the 5th that are heavily rural. It is home to Appalachian State University, the headquarters of Lowe's and is host to both chicken and tree farms. The district has very few minority voters and fewer Democrats than Republicans. Democrats tend to be more traditional Southern Democrats in this district. This is another district that has substantially more white voters than African American. The Democratic Party is 15% African American
It is easy to see the 5th CD going for Hillary Clinton. There are always recruiting opportunities in college towns, so with time to register more students the Obama campaign could boost his numbers in Boone.
The 5th is currently represented by Virginia Foxx who recently embarrassed herself in front of the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce. While the Chamber is typically seen as a conservative organization and Foxx is certainly very conservative, her fear mongering brought laughter and her performance was seen as a bit of a joke. It's probably best if Foxx stays put in the mountains where the Republicans are far less sophisticated and will buy into her Democratic doomsday scenario. The 5th voted heavily for Bush in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +15
6th Congressional District - Rep. Howard Coble, Republican - 5 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 06 | 438,486 | 144,385 | 204,074 | 90,027 |
| Total Voters | Black | White | America | Asian | Multi- Race | Other | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 06 | 438,486 | 37,952 | 391,277 | 930 | 1,528 | 577 | 4,220 | 2,002 |
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 06 | 438,486 | 2,151 | 407,878 | 28,457 |
Like the 5th CD, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District has few minority voters and is heavily Republican. It trends a little more urban with help from parts of Greensboro and High Point. Furniture manufacturing, chicken processing, the Furniture Mart (not in the 6th, but close enough to impact the district) and tourism/golfing have helped shape the district. African American voters make up 21% of the Democratic Party in the 6th District.
While much of the geography is rural, many of the voters are located near Greensboro, Asheboro and High Point. Most of the Democrats I know in this area trend very liberal, but my feeling is they are in the minority and that most Democrats are more moderate in their politics. My guess is this district will go Clinton and I'm not sure how close it will be.
Rep. Howard Coble is a very partisan Republican. He has held the office since 1984. This district went big for George Bush in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +17.
7th Congressional District - Rep. Mike McIntyre, Democrat - 6 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 07 | 425,521 | 214,329 | 127,860 | 83,332 |
| Total Voters | Black | White | America | Asian | Multi- Race | Other | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 07 | 425,521 | 84,478 | 309,390 | 22,452 | 1,018 | 828 | 4,662 | 2,693 |
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 07 | 425,521 | 2,196 | 386,085 | 37,240 |
The 7th Congressional District in North Carolina is also traditional tobacco farming country, but hog farming has now replaced tobacco in importance. This district includes Wilmington and parts of Fayetteville. The tourist industry, film industry and military have all had an impact on the voter makeup of the district. The 7th District has more Democrats than Republicans, but they tend to be conservative Democrats. The Democratic Party is 34% African American voters.
The district is more rural than urban and more white than minority. Mike McIntyre is considered a Blue Dog Democrat and is one of North Carolina's more conservative Democratic representatives in Washington. He is considered a match for his district. McIntyre has won re-election with 73% of the vote in last two election cycles. Like other rural districts with a majority of white voters, the 7th is probably a Clinton district. While this district has the same percentage of African American voters in the Democratic Party as the 4th Congressional District, it is the differences white Democratic voters that probably make this a Clinton district.
Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004. With far more Democrats than Republicans, this district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +3.
8th Congressional District - Rep. Robin Hayes, Republican - 5 Delegates
Total Voters
Dem
Rep
Una
Congressional Dist. : 08
388,705
190,227
117,671
80,807
| Total Voters | Black | White | America | Asian | Multi- Race | Other | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 08 | 388,705 | 106,815 | 262,301 | 4,261 | 1,815 | 1,103 | 9,270 | 3,140 |
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 08 | 388,705 | 5,116 | 347,094 | 36,495 |
North Carolina's 8th Congressional District is made up of mostly rural counties with Mecklenburg and parts of Cabarrus and Cumberland providing the district's urban and exurban voters. Robin Hayes won office in 1998 and is best known for lying to his constituents with his promise to oppose CAFTA, the Central America Free Trade Agreement and then voting for it at literally the last minute. CAFTA and its free trade siblings have decimated the manufacturing industries that provided many, if not most, of the jobs in the 8th District. Home to some of the counties with the highest unemployment in the state, 8th District voters are hungry for change.
African Americans make up 45% of the Democratic Party in the 8th District. Though many white Democrats tend to be more conservative in this district I think Obama will carry the 8th.
Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +3.
9th Congressional District - Rep. Sue Myrick, Republican - 6 Delegates
Total Voters
Dem
Rep
Una
Congressional Dist. : 09
515,034
167,099
221,573
126,362
Total Voters
Black
White
America
Asian
Multi- Race
Other
Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 09
515,034
59,378
436,324
1,099
3,004
839
9,651
4,739
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 09 | 515,034 | 5,091 | 476,483 | 33,460 |
The 9th CD includes parts of Mecklenburg, Union and Gaston Counties. The portion of Union County that is included is host to palatial homes that are considered suburbs of Charlotte by most who live there. Union County is the 7th fastest growing county in the country which has proven a strain on infrastructure and a challenge to the all-Republican County leadership. (The FBI is currently investigating possible quid pro quo in the awarding of sewer hookups.) Gaston County was home to textile manufacturing and other industry and the areas of Mecklenburg include conservative suburban neighborhoods. This district is overwhelmingly white with African American voters making up 27% of the Democratic voters in the District.
This district is 85% urban and has substantially more white voters than African American voters. There is fairly strong support for Hillary Clinton in the Mecklenburg County area, but my feeling is Obama will carry this district because of the strength of the more liberal urban voters in Mecklenburg County.
The current representative is Sue Myrick. She has has no trouble winning re-election. George Bush won in this district in both 2000 and 2004 with 63% of the vote. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +12.
10th Congressional District - Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican - 5 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 10 | 411,425 | 147,701 | 178,085 | 85,639 |
| Total Voters | Black | White | America | Asian | Multi- Race | Other | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 10 | 411,425 | 32,764 | 370,767 | 399 | 1,499 | 438 | 3,546 | 2,012 |
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 10 | 411,425 | 1,888 | 380,261 | 29,276 |
North Carolina's 10th Congressional District stretches through the beautiful Blue Ridge mountains of the state. It is traditional textile country with some cotton farming throw in. Like the 8th District, the 10th has been hit hard with textile mill closings which results in high unemployment in some areas.
The district is split equally between rural and urban voters. There are substantially more white voters than African American and more Republicans than Democrats. African American voters comprise 18% of the voters in the Democratic Party. My feeling is Hillary Clinton will win this district.
The district is currently represented by Patrick McHenry, an unpopular Republican. He has almost as many Republican detractors as Democratic. George Bush won this district handily in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +15.
11th Congressional District - Rep. Heath Shuler, Democrat - 6 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 11 | 472,465 | 190,260 | 166,427 | 115,778 |
| Total Voters | Black | White | America | Asian | Multi- Race | Other | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 11 | 472,465 | 16,220 | 443,339 | 3,465 | 788 | 833 | 4,391 | 3,429 |
| Total Voters | Hispanic | Not Hisp | Undesig | |
| Congressional Dist. : 11 | 472,465 | 1,875 | 425,624 | 44,966 |
The 11th CD is home to North Carolina's newest Democratic congressman, Heath Shuler. Shuler won in 2006 ousting Charles Taylor, an ethically challenged Republican. The area has been traditionally supported by the textile industry and tree farming. Like the 8th District, the 11th has been hit hard with textile mill closings. Tourism and trees are important industries.
The district's largest urban area is Asheville. Like the 10th it is substantially more white than black, however it has more registered Democrats than Republicans probably due to the liberal leanings of Asheville. The Democratic Party's voting pool is 7% African American. Like the 10th, I think Hillary Clinton will win this district, but with a narrower margin than the 10th because of Asheville's influence. I might be giving Asheville way too much influence here. It will be fun to see how far off I am.
George Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R +7.
12th Congressional District - Rep. Mel Watt, Democrat - 7 Delegates
| Total Voters | Dem | Rep | Una | |
| Congressional Dist. : 12 | 400,219 | 227,283 | 98,901 | 74,035 |