Positive Ads Working? Perdue, Obama and Hagan leading in NC
Public Policy Polling has released its latest poll numbers and it looks like the frontrunners are those candidates tending to run more positive campaigns. The U.S. Senate results are a bit skewed because Jim Neal hasn't started his television advertising yet and the negative campaigning from the Neal camp has been limited to press releases that resulted in an article or two and a couple of blog posts that were seen by a limited market. There are three weeks left. Plenty of time for Moore and Neal to make up ground, but I think Hillary might be done. Full release found here.
U.S. Senate
Kay Hagan 28
Jim Neal 7
Howard Staley 3
Marcus Williams 3
Duskin Lassiter 2
Governor
Bev Perdue 41
Richard Moore 31
Dennis Nielsen 4
President
Barack Obama 54
Hillary Clinton 34
- Betsy Muse's blog
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This part of the release intrigued me...
That seems a high margin in general. Is the second part about additional unquantifiable error a typical disclaimer on these releases?
It doesn't seem to be that
It doesn't seem to be that high of a margin compared to other polls, but I don't think I've seen that disclaimer before.
Doesn't mean it hasn't been there. Just means I haven't seen it.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Pointing at Naked Emperors
I should have done a quick check of the PPP site
It seems to be a typical disclaimer. I thought a margin of error over 4 was considered getting invalid (that is based on a vague recollection of statistics classes).
MoE's
over 4 aren't that unusual in my experience. It's not really about validity, but about reliability.
The totals of those numbers strike me as ... odd.
The total for the Pres. race is 88%. A fairly good sample, though there are still 12% of participants in this poll who either refused to respond or can be assumed undecided. Have to agree with Betsy here ... 12% is not much room for Senator Clinton to over take Senator Obama when the distance between them is 20 points.
The total for the Gov race is 76% and the distance between front runners is only ten points. But, 24% of respondents are either undecided or didn't respond. That isn't a really solid feeling lead to me, but I'm a total newbie to gubernatorial politics and these high "undecided" polls may have a tendency to be pretty good predictors for all I know. Or not.
Now we look at the Senate race. weird. Honestly.
The total for the Senate race is 43% and there are 21 points between the front runners. BUT 57% of the participants are either undecided or didn't respond. Can that number mean anything other than neither Jim nor Kay have much name recognition in NC. Couple this with a poll I caught on the WRAL 10 o'clock news last night that showed Hagan and Neal both running behind Dole with about the same numbers and that's all I can think it means. I refuse to believe that NC voters are so self-loathing as to actually want another 6 years of Liddy Dole's non-representation of their needs and concerns in the Senate.
In the end, the only thing I really get from this poll about the Senate race is that whatever happens, when the primary is over, whichever Democrat is running against Dole will need all of us to put signs in our yards and in friends yards and maybe even -- gasp! -- a sticker on our cars to help them get over Dole's name recognition advantage.
"It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit." - Harry Truman
That's pretty much what that means (Senate)
So, no matter who wins the primary it is an uphill battle. It is going to take a lot of money to get that name recognition up and there is a lot of competition for the donors out there this cycle. This is definitely a race where grassroots and netroots support can make a difference. We will need to get behind the primary winner in a big way.
Hagen's ad
The thing I really like about Kay's ad is that it emphasizes, both orally and in writing, that she is a Democratic candidate for Senate. Have you noticed how many signs, ads, etc., for politicians nowdays don't even mention their party? I love the fact that Kay is proud to be a Democrat and emphasizes it front and center.
Hagan other Ads?
Hagen's ad
The thing I really like about Kay's ad is that it emphasizes, both orally and in writing, that she is a Democratic candidate for Senate* Lances S
Yes! In fact she has another award winning TV ad that just hit the democrat air waves today.
" Hi! I am Kay Hagan!
I was born in a log cabin in Shelby North Carolina with my 3 children and we were force to move to Florida for 18 years to live with my nasty Senator corrupt Uncle. After being free from Florida from my Uncle, I move back Wake Forest University and serve tables to earn my law degree. I was lucky that I married a another poor law student who became my husband for the past 30 years. Like Senator Obama! I am the real deal and the Obama of North Carolina. Vote for me and my family"
Fighting Kay who refuses no debates, anyplace, anytime!
Hagan Refuses to TV Debate
How come Kay Hagan refuses to debate on TV without the minor candidates, but was perfectly fine debating in Orange County just with Jim Neal last weekend? Something is a little fishy.