Presidential Primary Returns Open Thread
Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry
Well, folks, I still don't know who I will vote for in the presidential primary, but I still have dreams of my vote making a difference. For that to happen Hillary needs to pull out some wins tonight.
I know this is very selfish of me, but I want North Carolina Democrats to experience the mad rush of excitement on a primary day when it actually matters who we vote for. I want Obama and Clinton stumping in this state fighting for our votes. I want to see long lines at the polls. I want to see Dems with primaries busting it to figure out how to capitalize on the massive turnout.
I want election day excitement dagnabbit! (....and I don't want to wait until May 6 to get it!)
So........for tonight........and for very selfish reasons..........
Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry
- Betsy Muse's blog
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Okay
I'll be a Hillary supporter for a couple of hours, just to jump on your bandwagon. If she hangs in close, there's a case to be made for keeping up the campaign. If she gets blown out, not so much.
But I agree with you about the impact of a tightly contested race on the primary. Having both candidates criss-crossing NC for votes would mostly be a good thing. In any case, thought, I don't like seeing the campaign turn ugly, which is likely to get worse the longer it goes on.
I'll go out on limb and predict that tonight's primaries
will leave things as they have been - unresolved.
Obama looks to have an edge in Texas, while Clinton has an edge in Ohio and Rhode Island. I have no info on Vermont, but I would expect The Green Mountain state to lean Clinton as it lies between NH and NY.
So Clinton might gain some ground but not enough to overtake Obama.
Suprises are certainly possible as Obama might tie Ohio and get enough in th eoddly structured TX primary cum caucus to more than offset RI. Who knows??? It is fun predicting though.
All roads lead to the PA turnpike, and then Betsy just might get her wish. :)
Person County Democrats
Mixed feelings.
I've already got campaign fatigue, and it's not even May, let alone November. Part of me wants it to be settled decisively tonight so the national party can heal a little. The other part of me is screaming for the excitement of an honest-to-the-Thing-That-Sits-on-High* Presidential Campaign blowing through NC. w00t! Just the thought of that sent a jolt of adrenaline through me. ::shiver:: When do the Ohio polls close?
*This is a West Wing Reference. It's obscure, but I've been watching old episodes on the DVD, and I lurve it.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Which
Which West Wing episode is that? I'm a WW fanatic and I can't recall.
I've been thinking a lot today about that final scene between Toby and Bartlet in "H. CON - 172:"
Good advice to be had there.
----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy
It's this one.
Election Night.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Realistic
This is all about math. At this point Hillary can only win with big wins in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania or by stopping the blood loss, tying Obama for the rest of the campaign in delegates, and winning a floor fight at the convention to include Florida and Michigan's fake votes.
She wont drop out after tonight, but without huge victories tonight I am not sure how she will justify it.
"Keep the Faith"
Vermont
I heard from a friend that O is up by 30 in exit polling in Vermont.
ok. Well that part of my prediction didn't last
more than 10 minutes. So much for that brand of tea.
Person County Democrats
Vermont called for Obama....but not a surprise
The spread isn't a surprise either based on the exit polls......but then the win is based on exit polls. hehe
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
As much as I want NC to have
As much as I want NC to have a say, I really do think it's in the Party's best interests to get this thing over sooner rather than later.
Hillary's comments about McCain in Ohio cinched it for me. At this point, she's bloodying our likely nominee (the path to the nomination for Hillary looks murky at best) and diminishing our chances for victory in November.
It needs to be over.
----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy
Agreed
I can't remember where, but I heard someone ask, "Is there a scenario where Clinton wins the nomination without it being ugly?" She's not going to win 65-35 victories in the remaining states, so she's not going to close the delegate gap. She'd have to win it with superdelegates or cajolery in Michigan and Florida.
You do make a good point
With McCain now the official Rethug nominee, they are officially now in general election mode. Will our Democratic nominee be at a disadvantage if they don't move into general election mode until this summer?
I also like Betsy's idea of our votes making a difference here in NC.
BTW, thanks for the shoutout in the bulletin!
www.MoBetterChange.blogspot.com
Clearly.
Clearly, there has to be some concern that McCain has between now and August/September to coalesce his base and begin his outreach to independents.
But what I'm more concerned about...and what will start tomorrow when McCain visits the White House to secure Dubya's endorsement...is the fundraising.
Obama's fundraising machine is ridiculous right now (over 1 million donors, $50+ million in one month) and, assuming that he will forego public financing in the general, McCain's got months now to make up that gap.
Not to mention that if the FEC holds McCain to his pledge of public financing for the primary (which they should because he earned free ballot access by accepting matching funds), he's only got $5M to spend between now and the convention. Obama could be using what's left of his primary funds to build a base for the general and start hammering McCain early.
But no...
We're going to the convention.
Despite the fact that a fair nomination win by Clinton is improbable.
Great.
The longer this goes on, the worse it is for the Party.
----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy
On the other hand
The Obama campaign said that if the race was still going on at this point they were planning on putting organizers on the ground in North Carolina.
Its really hard to argue with a campaign that is going to hae a significant field presence in all 50 states by time this is finished.
"Keep the Faith"
they've already got organizers on the ground
At least that's what it looks like from what I can see - and that's great. That's how it should be.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
You do make a good point
With McCain now the official Rethug nominee, they are officially now in general election mode. Will our Democratic nominee be at a disadvantage if they don't move into general election mode until this summer?
I also like Betsy's idea of our votes making a difference here in NC.
BTW, thanks for the shoutout in the bulletin!
www.MoBetterChange.blogspot.com
I hope it finishes tonight
I've been pissed off at both senators for their dirty politicking. They have, for the most part, been clean ("vote for me because I can do X, Y, Z"), but they've gotten too down in the muck for it to help either in the general election.
Obama seemed to start it, then Clinton ran away with it, and now they are both racing in the filth. Both should just grow up and behave like adults. Stop behaving like the little snots Lee Atwater would be proud of.
If Clinton does not have a fantastic showing today, she should concede, and let Obama work towards November. Stop the infighting, and work together to help the country.
Remember - the enemy is GW and his criminal cadre.
Be selfish if you want (even in jest). You'll get no respect from me.
OK - it appears Clinton did well enough last night to continue fighting. Cool - as they say, "the people have spoken." Now - FIGHT CLEANLY! No more darkening picture skin color... No more "3 AM phone call" commercials... (Sorry - without my morning coffee I can't recall a recent Clinton-smearing statement/commercial from Obama, though there have been some).
Play nice, play clean, DON'T GIVE THE GOP WEAPONS TO USE.
Ohio results trickling in
Veeery incomplete data, but here's what CNN has so far....there's even less at the Ohio SOS's site. Reported as Clinton/Obama ....
Geauga Co. 52% / 47%
Hancock - 55% / 43%
Lake Co. - 65% / 33%
Pickaway - 69% / 29%
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
The tension Its driving me crazy!!!
Adaaame!!...Aaadaameee!!...Adaaaaaame!!!....Huh?....oh....Oh yea...wrong primary...Sorry...I think Hillery just won Ohio.
Its that I'm just so focused I guess!
Ha! You're a trip, Marshall
It absolutely must be Adddaaaaammmmmeeeeeeeee! In May.....and then again in November.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
Hi Marshall...
bradford
...Did you say you just won Ohio? I'm your press guy, I need to know these things. Seriously, though, I am terribly torn. I think the excitement of the presidential candidates campaigning in N.C. could be great for our candidates, all the way down the ticket. But I'm fearful that if Hill and Bar have much more time to beat each other up, they might actually turn off unaffiliateds who might vote for us. That could hurt not only the lower end of the ticket in November, but would also beneft McCain, who already appeals to many of those unaffialteds. At this point, I've got to confess I don't even have a clue what would be best for all of us.
me too
I want a voice on May 6 and I am still undecided. This whole thing is a math lesson. Before it's done we'll all be experts on all the states. Come on! this is fun! Turnout is awesome
The counties reporting in so far all seem to be
Northeastern Ohio counties.....and those have polled strong for Clinton. Don't let the early returns fool you.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
In a juicy ironic twist ...
Jeff Davis county in Texas is voting for Obama 47% to 40% with 16% of precincts reporting.
Talk about spinning in your grave .... :)
Person County Democrats
Oh well.....we won't get much more until after 9pm
I guess that would be 10pm our time. We might know Texas before we know Ohio.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
What?
Norah O'Donnell just said that the Ohio results were a "transformation" for HRC. Uh, hasn't she been ahead in the polls the whole time? How is this some kind of comeback?
Never listen to Noron O'Donnell
She's got rocks in her head...
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
Of the counties reporting in Texas
100 are going for Clinton and 24 are going for Obama. Obama is winning the popular vote. County by county is important in Texas, though. I'm not sure when their caucuses will be over, but primary vote results are coming in now.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
From Marc Ambinder:
Oh Lord.
I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry.
----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy
Pfft
Brokaw just said that Obama is a "much stronger candidate" against McCain. Ya think?
Based on polls...
That seems to be true.
----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy
You bet
Not only is Obama stronger against McCain, he actually might help us down the ticket. If you're in a swing district (at the Congressional or State Leg. level), would you rather have HRC or Obama at the top of the ballot?
I'm as tired as other people with Obama fankids, but he has the potential (only potential) to construct a real progressive coalition. Plus, the contrast between him and McCain is just awesome.
In 2004
In 2004 statewide turnout was 64%. Democratic voters as a whole were at 65%.
African Americans turned out at 59%.
The real power of Obama's candidacy is not in getting an extra 5 points of turnout from African Americans. Its in getting those 5% to vote AND volunteer.
"Keep the Faith"
Howard Dean
The Good Doctor starts us off on the right foot.
"Keep the Faith"
Clinton wins Ohio
....quite handily despite polls showing Obama closing in. She's taken a very narrow lead in Texas. I haven't done the math on the Ohio delegate distribution....I'm too tired. We took some damage to our roof during the storms tonight. I can tarp it, but the wind would have done a number on the tarp as well since I had no way to clamp or weight it down. Oh well....the joys of home ownership.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
Those numbers will close
I still expect Clinton to win it by a decent margin in the end, but a lot of Cleveland is still out.
Two things
First, I just read on Daily Kos (I think) that Obama took more delegates from OH than Clinton, at least at this point. But don't quote me on that.
Second, is it just me or does HRC more intentionally invoke the gender theme when her back's against the wall? She did it before NH, and now she seems to be bringing it up more often after Obama's string of wins. Maybe it has something to do with her reliance on a large gender gap. Just thinking.
power outage at 9:45 here
So we had no results until this morning! For some reason, we did not have batteries handy for a radio and I lost internet and couldn't stay online.
I checked in with my home town in East Texas, which has gone heavily for Republicans for awhile now. There were around 4000 votes for Clinton, 2200 for Obama, then around 400 each for McCain and Huckabee, with Huckabee slightly edging out McCain. I am probably related to more people than voted for McCain, and all my relatives except maybe one or two are Republicans there. I will add that Clinton hate was as strong there as anyplace I know, so this is clearly a case of crossover voting.
I do have a slight positive take, that it keeps NC exciting and will energize voters here. But it sure has been a long primary season, and my 8 year son is unclear who he is supposed to hate. (!)I try to keep my comments to a minimum around him, but he is competitive and likes things clearly defined, good guys, bad guys, etc.
Am I the last to see these?
As the race slogs on, a little something brilliant pops up:
And if these clips make you want to brush up on your Obama talking points, here's a great resource.
I'm glad to see the outcome of last nights primary votes.
I am truly no fan of either Democratic candidate, however I do hope to have them coming to NC to woo the voters here in the near future.
I'm really beginning to question Senator Obama's game plan and his seeming lack of understanding what Democratic voters REALLY want in a candidate. Every time he gets any more detailed than Hope or Change, I end up wondering if he really beleives that reaching across the aisle is going to work just because he thinks he has the gift of bringing people together. I seriously doubt that with the Republicans we have in Congress. His dislike for getting out there and mixing it up with the media to get his detailed message out (right now his message is sound bites from campaign speeches) is also very uncomfortable for me. It is as though he is unable to really answer questions with concrete ideas.
As for Hillary, I still believe her to be a Clinton in all ways politically. She seems to always want to see which way the wind is blowing before making a solid decision, she is WAY too cozy with the corporate and lobbyist types and I especially do not like fear-mongering by any candidate, but even less from a Democratic candidate that should know better.
I may write in Snoopy in May (just kidding, but barely). ;-)
North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!