Senator Clinton in Indiana

Was listening to someone today say that Indiana would be the tie-breaker on May 6. I guess...here's my analysis of the race, for what little it is worth: Sen. Clinton needs AT LEAST a 10-point win in Penn. Anything less does not bode well, and I would consider a loss. Anything more, and it's time to claim the "big mo." I think a substantial Penn. victory for Sen. Clinton brings in money and changes the media's "theme" of the campaign. And I'm not smart/dedicated enough to do the math, but if the total popular vote percentages either equal out or tip towards Sen. Clinton, then it's really on. If none of these happen, then ... real problems.

So on to here and Ind. I believe Sen. Obama will take NC, but he needs, also, a 10-point victory for it to be a "real" victory (only if Sen. Clinton takes Penn. by 10+). If Sen. Clinton wins NC...major, major, major upset (I think it unlikely, but I'm certainly pulling for it!).

But the theory goes...big win in Penn. for Clinton, big win in NC for Obama, so Indiana is a "tie-breaker." I'm not sure I totally agree with that, inasmuch as Sen. Obama has the momentum now, so Sen. Clinton needs a big win in Penn. and a close loss/win in NC for Ind. to come into play. But a big (10 points or more) for her in Indiana? I think it definitely matters, especially since most of the states afterwards look great for her, e.g. W.V. and Kentucky, though not so much w/ Oregon.

We'll see. But, if you look at this not only from a primary #'s aspect, i.e. popular vote, delegates, electoral votes, but from the superdelegate perspective, then you have to analyze the April 22 and two May 6 results according to demographics. Some of us tend to make fun of the Situation Room and the like for the coverage of the election results, but this is actually one of the few times we really need to pay attention, b/c the superdelegates will. I think it comes down to who is the better candidate along economic, racial, to a certain extent gender, and to a certain extent age demographics. This data will be examined for the obvious answer to the question: Who does better again McCain?

I like how we are not even CLOSE to solving any of this. Which to a certain extent is fine; I think we SHOULD wait until ALL the states vote. Why deprive states of this once in a lifetime "you matter!"? But I really, really hope someone is working behind the scenes to FIX Florida and Michigan (ignoring them or doing something arbitrary is not an option. Seriously. Substitute NC for either of those states and see what your opinion is then). And there needs to be some endgame. ...though the political junkie in me would love a brokered convention, and I don't think it would NECESSARILY be bad, but obviously it's better to run a general election campaign sooner than later.

...boy, that was rambling.