The Spotlight Shifts to NC & Indiana

Is anyone else saying, "thank god PA is over with?"

No disrespect to my friends in the Quaker State, but that 6 week interlude was just obscene! I'm likely naive in hoping that the next round of primaries will shift to a more positive tone, but I know what's at stake. Hillary has no choice because there is little in their policy proposals to distinguish them and she has a lot of ground to cover in a small amount of time.

My prediction is that NC will deliver Obama a 10% victory. Decisive, but not a blowout, and that Indiana will be tight, perhaps less than 2% separating the winner. Right now I'll call it for Obama, because I think this type of campaign fits more into his wheelhouse, where he can focus for a short period of time and doesn't have a 20-30 point deficit to make up. Plus, I think people will tire of Clinton's negativity. Here's a caveat on that, though. If Obama continues to "trade elbows", that backlash may never materialize. He now has a chance to disengage from Clinton's negativity and focus on his core message of changing the mode of politics on the national (and global) stage. He doesn't have to trade barbs with her, but he can call out hypocrisy when needed but stay positive and on message for the rest. That's his strength: counter punch when necessary but stay focused on the real fight.

If Obama pulls off the double-header sweep, I think eyes will start looking Hillary's way for an exit strategy. After May 6th, only 7 primaries will remain, and none of them would give her the delegates or the popular vote to make a case for derailing Obama's nomination. She needs the popular vote win badly, I'm just not sure the math is there.

Barring any real changes in the campaign for Pres, this will be my last post on Obama before the primary. He's got my money and he's got my vote. If you want my reasons, I'll be happy to share.

The rest of this time will be focusing on Senate and Gov, because I think both of those are important and competitive. We need a strong candidate to knock Dole off her perch and the Governor race looks very competitive from both sides.