War of the Winds

I had heard from a prominent Democrat that things would change when Congress let out for October. The conversation would go from Iran to Iraq, voters would think less about terrorism and more about the war, and ultimately things would sway in the Democrats' favor. I think luck may have outdone forsight this go around, but my Democratic buddy could not have been more on the money in terms of who would have the upper hand.

Before Foleygate, or Pagegate, or Pedophiliagate - or whatever you want to call it - the Rs had been on a roll. Terrorism and Iran had been front and center, Bush had seen a slight bounce, and GOP strategists starting talking about staying in control of the House after Nov. 7. Things were looking up for our conservative colleagues, and who knows, maybe they'd be able to throw in the capture of Osama as the icing on the cake.

Unfortunately for the party of family values, the house of cards came tumbling down this week. It looked like Bob Woodard was to be the culprit who pulled the rug out. Then came along Mark Foley, who, in a weaker moment, found it appealing to come onto a male page who probably hasn't yet even held a Schick in his hand. The excuses were good: first it was alcohol (which personally I believe, because if he is a Repugnant, he can't be that stupid), then it was molestation by a holy man in a robe; next it will be because Bill Clinton and Air America convinced him it was OK. But Mark Foley is small potatoes. He's (harrassed) just another page in the chapter. I argue the true culprit will be Denny Hastert.

Coach, if you will, and the GOP House leadership, is in deep doo doo. With just a touch more evidence, it will become apparent that Coach's team was aware of the problem, yet decided it was low on the priority chart. That's not good. What's worse for the GOP is that the media will put terrorism and immigration aside for a minute and focus on the fact that GOP leadership knew - without a doubt - that one of their own was engaging in e-pedophilia. If things head down this road (and the AP and Fox News actually get Hastert's and Foley's affiliation correct), Kissell, Shuler, et al will be smiling with the biggest shit eating grin you've ever seen. Vernon Robinson will remain a joke, and the control of the Senate will all of a sudden be up in the air. Ah, glorious times.

For those candidates down ballot, it will be a war of the winds. While Ty Harrell, Greer Beatty, Ed Ridpath, and others within the N&O readership(no other paper has covered the lottery story to the necessary threshold) are likely glad that the rotting core of the national GOP continues to come to light, their attention is also turned to the fact that the (mis)dealings of the state Democratic leadership are under intense scrutiny. Believe what you will about innocence and guilt, there is no doubt that Kevin Geddings, a favorite among the Democratic establishment, is a dirty rotten scoundrel. The verdicts handed down by the legal courts may be not guilty, but the court of public opinion has already declared something smells fishy and it doesn't like it.

Which story lasts longer - the ineptitude of national GOP leadership or the greasiness of the state Democratic leadership - will ultimately decide the fate of several down ballot candidates within the N&O's readership. It's almost a battle of voter supression. Do Dems turn out even though their team looks to have greased the skids for the lottery? Do Rs go to the polls even though their team tried to sweep pedophilia under the rug? These next couple of weeks will bear the answer. Until then, candidates can only cast their sails in hopes to catch the prevailing wind.

Comments

Looks like Reynolds is going to take a beating too

It seems like every time I feel like I'm current on the Foley news, something else breaks. I'm not as worried about down-ticket Dems as I once was. I think that most of the Republicans I know are so disgusted they either aren't voting or they are voting for Dems.


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Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Great analysis, Obidiah.

The Foley Follies are sucking up all the oxygen right now, leaving the Geddings-Black sleaziness on the side burner temporarily. Plus the fact that so many North Carolinians wanted the lottery in the first place may blunt voters' interest in the story behind the legislative travesty.

I completely agree, though, that the outcome on November 7th will hinge on who's more disgusted and chooses not to vote. The stench of the national Party of Torture and Perversion is spreading, so it may very well dampen the frightwing turnout.

I've read in a couple of places that the Elon poll has data about the public concerns about Jim Black, but I honestly question that finding. Most people - and probably most voters - have no idea who Jim Black is and could care less. But I'll guaran-damn-tee the know who ex-Congressman Foley is.

Nice entry. Recommended.

PS You're a admirable bridgebuilder. I could never bring myself to refer to the Torturers as "colleagues." That includes even the moderates with (R) behind their names. They support a party that is systematically dismantling the Constitution and consistently placing monied interests above all else. I have nothing but disdain for them and their agenda.

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“Don't tell me what you value, show me your budget, and I'll tell you what you value.”
― Joe Biden

Oh, yeah.....

meant to say I also recommended.


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Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Bush approval

While there are reports of Bush popularity rising in NC, all the national polls showed his popularity dropping back into the high 30s BEFORE the Foley Five Scandal. As noted on MyDD, there have been less national generic polls SINCE this scandal than at any time in the last few months. The pollsters are certainly on the side of the Republicans, wanting to spare them the certain drop they would have received in the days immediately after the collapse of their morality facade.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me