Where to put the new 14th District? (and other redistricting thoughts)

(cross-posted at dKos)

All available analysis suggests that North Carolina will pick up a 14th district after the 2010 census. The question now is, where to put it? And another question--how to further shore up the map for the Dems?

To help guide my analysis, I consulted North Carolina's current congressional map, the results for Hagan-Dole in 2008 and the presidential results. I relied more on the Senate map than the presidential map becaus as I mentioned in November, I believe Hagan's nine-point thumping of Dole is a better sign of where things are going in North Carolina.

Based on population trends, it's very likely that a 14th district will be either a new Charlotte-area district or a new Triad (Greensboro/Winston-Salem) district. Although as a Charlottean I'd rather see a new district in my neck of the woods (especially if it offers a chance to get rid of Sue Myrick), fundamental fairness makes me think it should be a Triad district.

As you can see from the congressional map, the Triad is carved up worse than a Thanksgiving turkey. The map is drawn in such a way that the only two Dems representing significant portions of the area represent districts based elsewhere. Mel Watt's Charlotte-based 12th includes about 60 percent of Winston-Salem, 70 percent of High Point and 30 percent of Greensboro. Brad Miller's Raleigh-based 13th includes two tails that include 40 percent of Greensboro and a small portion of Burlington. That leaves most of the Triad represented by two of America's worst congresscritters--Howard Coble and Virginia Foxx.

So here's the question--how to create a new Triad-area district? My initial hunch would be to create a district comprised of most of Guilford County and most of Forsyth County. I know, I know, it sounds strange to put Greensboro and Winston-Salem in the same district. But I can't think of any other way to create a Dem-leaning, Triad-based district. And yes, this can be done by taking areas out of Mel Watt's 12th district--at present, the 1st is the only district in the state with VRA issues.

Next, I turned my attention to the two districts that are at most risk to flip once the current Dem incumbents retire and yet are the easiest to shore up--the 2nd (Bob Etheridge) and the 7th (Mike McIntyre). The 2nd is probably more likely to flip than the 7th, if only because it includes Johnston County, the reddest county in the Triad (55 percent for Liddy!). My inclination is to shift Johnston to the 3rd, and replace it with most of the 4th's share of Wake County. I'd also put all of Rocky Mount into this district (it's currently split between the 1st, 2nd and 3rd). My hunch is that this at the very least changes the 2nd from R+3 to D+3 or 4, making it a lot more likely it'll stay Democratic once Etheridge retires.

The 7th is a strange beast. Hagan cleaned Dole's clock here--she won all but two counties located mostly in this district by five points or more. However, McCain just barely won here, and only then because he narrowly won New Hanover County (Wilmington) by about 1,200 votes. Translation--this district seems to be turning more bluish-red. Still, just to make sure this district stays blue once McIntyre retires (and hopefully to help get a better Dem than him in there), a nice tradeoff for putting more of Wake in the 2nd would be to add the 2nd's share of Fayetteville to the 7th. At worst, this makes an R+3 district R+1 or D+0; at best, it's D+2 or 3.

Under this plan, David Price's 4th would pick up the rest of Chatham County, as well as the 13th's share of Alamance County. Brad Miller would lose his share of Greensboro to the new 14th, but pick up all of Warren County and the 3rd's share of Vance County. At one stroke, you make the already uber-Democratic 4th even more Democratic, and turn Miller's 13th from marginal Dem to strong Dem.

Now to my metro area, Charlotte. I'd give Larry Kissell some more breathing room by pushing all of northeastern Mecklenburg County into his 8th District, while moving the sliver in the southeast to the 9th. Northeast Mecklenburg is solid, solid blue, and I figure this would make what is now probably a D+2 district D+5 at worst. I'd then move Gastonia and the more insanely Repub area of Gaston County to the 10th, while adding Mount Holly and Belmont to the 12th--which at worst makes the 12th D+8, still all but impossible to flip. I'd then push southwestern Mecklenburg into the 9th. Combined with the loss of Gaston, this gives the 9th enough Dems to counteract the nasty-red portion of Union County in a good year--making it possible Sue Myrick could be taken out in a strong Dem year, or at the very least make it easier to flip when she retires.

By this analysis, the best-case scenario in such a map is an 11 Dem-4 Repub delegation. It's probably the best that can be done under the circumstances. I really wanted to find a way to give Heath Shuler more breathing room, but looking at the map, it's probably drawn the best that it can be under the circumstances--and besides, it's probably R+3 right now based on Obama clobbering McCain in Buncombe County.