Analysts: Trump can't win without North Carolina


Which is why we've been "blessed" by so many visits:

President Donald Trump’s frequent visits to North Carolina are a sign: the state and its 15 Electoral College votes are critical to his effort to win reelection. He has made seven appearances here since July 27 — four in September alone.

Biden leads Trump by a slight margin in North Carolina, which Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper called the most-important swing state in deciding the election. “I think there is a path to victory for Biden that doesn’t go down Tobacco Road, but I don’t think the same is true for President Trump,” Cooper said.

While I find it frustrating we still need to worry about Trump winning North Carolina (WTAF, people), it's somewhat comforting to know Biden can still win without us. Just like Obama did in 2012 with 332 Electoral votes. But (once again) it's the suburbs in NC that will determine the outcome:

The battlegrounds within this battleground state range from Republican-friendly rural areas to Democratic-friendly cities. In between are the suburbs, which appear to be changing shade from red to purple as voters move out of the cities or settle in North Carolina from other states.

“Hillary Clinton won the major urban central cities 66%-31%. Trump won rural counties 60%-40%,” said political scientist Michael Bitzer of Catawba College. Bitzer routinely does deep-dive analyses of voter trends and election results. Suburban counties near major metros voted 65%-33% for Trump, he said, while suburbs closer to the cities voted 49%-48% for Clinton.

Bolding mine, because those suburbs should be close to evenly split, just like the ones closer to cities. Maybe a slight conservative lean, but not a 2/1 ratio. Of course that was before voters really knew how crazy Trump was. So I expect we'll see a shift there, but how much is the question.

One of the races to watch is NC's 8th Congressional District, where Patricia Timmons-Goodson is giving Richard Hudson some trouble:

Some Democrats and Republicans have said North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District, and in particular Fayetteville and Cumberland County on its eastern end, will be a bellwether for North Carolina as a whole.

Hudson is running for reelection against Patricia Timmons-Goodson of Fayetteville, a Black Democrat who has previously won statewide elections to the North Carolina Court of Appeals and North Carolina Supreme Court. Her campaign consultant, Thomas Mills, said Timmons-Goodson will boost turnout for other Democrats on the ballot — including Biden — by bolstering Black turnout and due to her popularity among Democrats in her hometown.

“She’s creating excitement,” Mills said.

The 8th District runs through central North Carolina from the Charlotte suburbs in Cabarrus County, which has been gaining Democratic voters, through the Piedmont region and Moore County, a Republican stronghold known for top-level golf courses, to Fayetteville and Fort Bragg. Bragg is the nation’s largest military base, with 53,700 uniformed personnel.

Lower-ballot candidates sometimes help presidential candidates, said political scientist Cooper.

“It’s exactly the kind of race where reverse coattails can happen and can be critical,” Cooper said. “I think that is absolutely possible that that could happen, and that it could motivate the African-American vote.”

Your mouth to god's ears. Hudson is an empty suit, was nothing more than a lackey for people like Robin Hayes, Virginia Foxx, and even that idiot Pat McCrory, before being granted a gerrymandered seat in Congress so he could continue to kiss ass. Boy needs to be sent home.