Will North Carolina decide?


No matter where you stand on the Democratic presidential primary, it's looking more and more like results in North Carolina will weigh heavily into the equation. It will be a battle royale, with the mainstream media engaged in full-throated support for Hillary, even as the grassroots support for Obama grows deeper and wider.

Between now and North Carolina's May primary, we'll watch Mississippi go heavily for Obama and see Pennsylvania split down the middle like Ohio and Texas. (No guesses on Wyoming.) Through it all, the delegate count will continue to hover within a range that puts super-delegates in the cat-bird seat.

And then the buses will roll into North Carolina, where it's looking more and more like super-delegates will be the deciding factor at the convention.

Governor Mike Easley, one of those super-delegates, is on record saying he doesn't really care who North Carolina voters want as the Democratic nominee. For the life of me, I cannot understand what's gotten into the man, but perhaps it's not too late to influence his decision.

"I don't know how my state's going to vote, but listen, I had to run and get the votes of a majority of the voters out of a state of 9 million people to get my vote, so I'm going to vote like I want to," he told a reporter.

I believe the governor of any state should align him or herself with the will of the people who elected him. Though I am an Obama supporter, I would expect Easley to cast his super-delegate vote for Hillary if she wins the North Carolina Democratic primary. And if Obama wins, of course, the Governor should vote for him using the same logic.

Listen, I know Mike Easley doesn't care what I expect. And he may even be past caring what a majority of North Carolinians expect. But it won't hurt to encourage him to do the right thing here. You can reach him at his website.

Comments

Never happen

Meanwhile, Clinton, fresh off big primary victories, hinted Wednesday at the possibility of sharing the Democratic presidential ticket with Obama — with her at the top. Obama played down his losses, stressing that he still holds the lead in number of delegates.

BIG primary victories? Ha!

More to the point, Hillary still doesn't get it. She doesn't understand that her name at the top of the ticket would be like a giant target on the back of the Democratic party at every level of government. She'd trigger that same unhappy outcome if she were nominated as VP, too.

Clinton as VP

I would more comfortable with her as VP than on the the top of the ticket but would that just give her the red carpet to the Oval Office in 8 years?

"jump in where you can and hang on"
Briscoe Darling to Sheriff Andy

I'm still trying to figure out

Why John Edwards was forced to quit after losing three, but HRC gets to stay in until she finally wins a couple. (and then all previous losses are magically meaningless).

Grrrrrrrrr

"Hampton Dellinger would make a great Lieutenant Governor." - Al Gore.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

I've been wondering the same thing for weeks.

I can't figure it out. I'd love to know who he will support publicly. I think he'll almost have to endorse if the campaign buses come here, don't you?

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

just messing with some numbers

611 people delegates left.

256 super delegates undecided.

They have been basically splitting the delegates so each will get about 305 more.

Obama needs 569 for the nod.

Hillary needs 655.

Last primary is June 27 Puerto Rico (how unique that this primary could finalize the deal)

This is giving McCain almost 100 free days to plot, plan, listen to the arguments of Hillary and Obama. While the press will be eating this fight up, the GOP is being handed all kind of ammo and time to deliberate a strategy.

This contest is going to come down to the super delagates and if mikey is a fair representation of the other super delegates, why did we go through all this crap in the first place. Over $200 million was spent on the Democratic Primary and raised by Democrats so 756 people will determine who the nominee is?

Does this erk anyone?

Is this the smartest road to go down?

If this nominee is won on the basis of the primaries and cacusus, then fine, but if it boils down to the super delegates picking the nominee, will the party be split? A lot of people did a lot of work for 756 people to "over ride" all that work.

EEEKKK, forgot about Edwards delegates, he could be a swing???

In the mean time, the GOP is having a field day. About the only good thing is the press will not be covering him so he will be in a void for these next 100 days.

A little less scary

Its a little less scary when you go to the Washington Post and see McCain wandering around with W's arm draped across his shoulder.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

That is why we need a national primary day

It's ridiculous that we have this spectacle going on for almost 6 months - having to listen to the punditocracy yammer on and on and change their minds over and over again.

I am pissed that I don't get a say in voting for the person I wanted to be in the race because most candidates drop out early on.

It makes no sense for people in two small states to in effect decide the slate of nominees so early.

Why not have a one-day national primary in May? That way, college kids and other activists aren't out freezing their buns off in December and January in Iowa and New Hampshire. We can all campaign for our nominee of our choice when the weather is warmer, and then in one day we will know who it is.

And we won't have to listen to the pundits yammer on about why they think a candidate will win a state one day then say they were right all along about that candidate not winning the state the day after the election.

That way we can start going out and campaigning for our party's nominee right away, and not have to wait until the convention is over. We can campaign for everyone up and down the ballot all summer, then vote for them in November.

Chris Telesca

Problem with National Primary Day.

He with most money at the beginning, gets the momentum, gets the win. This year, it probably would have been Hillary in a landslide on opening day. Obama had IA momentum, but he would not have had the money to do that for the year up to iowa in California, NY, FL, MI, PA, OH, etc. He needed the handshaking, small meetups to build momentum. What we need are rotating, regional primaries. IA, MO on week one; NH, VT on week two; NC, SC on week three; OR, WA on week four; MI, MN on week five; NM, NV on week six; etc. Better for the environment than all the flying from one coast to another each week, gives everyone a chance in the first couple weeks.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Not to be contrarian, but...

First, let me say I do look forward to NC potentially playing a notable role in the selection process for once. Second, I am a former Edwards voter who will be voting for Clinton.

I wanted to chime in to make two points that run counter to some of the comments above. This process taking longer on the Democratic side is not a bad thing. McCain will have a harder time making news now that he has no opponents. The MSM loves a horserace, and while I find that pretty damn annoying in most instances, we as Dems might as well get some traction with it. McCain resting or getting lukewarm support from has-been politicians won't keep him in the top news slot.

I also wanted to question a bit of conventional wisdom being bantered about. The notion that Clinton (or any other Dem running for President) hurting down ticket, at least in NC, is misguided to me. This state has a habit of voting for a Republican President and Senator and still voting for mostly Democrats down ticket. So, be it Clinton, Obama, or Mike Gravel, the notion that the Dem candidate will hurt those below is not supported by our past voting. Also, we seem to be forgetting that voters in this state vote for President separately from the rest of the ticket. So, since they have to push at least two buttons (or fill in two circles, or whatever), the connection between President and everyone else in NC is tenuous.

I think you're kidding yourself

or at least missing a really big point:

If Obama is the candidate in November, scores of thousands of newly registered and inspired voters will turn out to beat McBush. If Clinton is the candidate, scores of thousands of rabid Republicans will turn out instead.

This election, as evidenced by primary turnout all across the nation, is not about "our past voting."

I'm not one to throw around rhetoric that "things have changed" lightly, but I honestly believe Obama's appeal to independents, young voters, black voters, sick-and-tired voters, puts him in a completely different league than Clinton.

It's not about pushing buttons on the ballot. It's about getting to the polls in the first place. Obama will be the draw. That's why Rush Limbaugh is Hillary's best friend right now.

That is what I'm seeing with the teens I talk to

with the clients I work with (no I don't do political proselytization at work; they bring the subject up), and in the precinct I live in. It's Obama that gets them to care about registering, voting, and being involved. The only people I know who say that they are going to vote for Clinton are those who are long-time Democrats who would have voted for the Democratic candidate no matter who it was.

Obama makes the disenfranchised feel as if they have a voice - some of them for the first time in their lives. It's a wonderful thing to see.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Republicans who hate Hillary,

don't hate Obama. And will be just fine to see Obama win, so they will stay home, no matter what happens in next few months.

So...no worries

Yes, but down-ticket Dems have won in the past in NC

without all these newly registered voters. I don't think Clinton will inspire greater Rep turnout than Kerry did. The swiftboaters had folks worked into a frothy-mouthed frenzy to vote against Kerry.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Assumptions

I appreciate the notion above, but you are basing this claim on a few assumptions. First, you are assuming that those voters mentioned above won't, under any circumstances, vote for Clinton. Many of us, myself included, have preferences in candidates that don't work out. It doesn't mean that we turn out backs completely on the candidate's party because he didn't get the nomination.

Secondly, you are assuming that some of the groups that Clinton does well with like seniors and blue-collar workers won't drift to McCain if Obama is the nominee. I won't claim that I know they will, but your above statement works on the assumption that those who have voted for Obama may not return to the polls while those who have voted for Clinton will return for whomever the Democrat is.

I absolutely hope that whoever wins the nomination will be able to keep the other nominee's voters as well come November. I can't promise that with Clinton, but you can't promise that with Obama either.

We see differently.

The newly registered people I'm spending time with probably won't vote at all if Obama isn't the nominee. And if Obama loses out because of super-delegates, you might very well see wholesale rebellion.

Then you're spending time with a bunch of

people who don't deserve this democracy.

They either care about this country and want a Dem in the White House or they don't. They care about working for the common good or they don't. They care about what happens to the millions of people without health insurance or they don't. They care about the economy, people living in poverty, international relations and national security.....or they don't. If they do care, they'll work to put a Democrat in the White House. If all they care about is this one man, then they are probably just looking for a saviour instead of being truly interested in this country. If these newcomers are really interested in participating in this democracy, then they need to be prepared to roll up their shirtsleeves and do the dirty work of fighting for it. We're probably better off with them just sitting it out on the sidelines if their answer to losing the primary is to "sit it out" and hand the country back to Republicans just because they didn't get their way.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Maybe

But most of them are 18 and just sticking their toes in this water for the first time. If that water stinks, that's the last you'll ever see of them.

That's sad

I sure hope they don't approach college, jobs, careers, marriage, family in the same way or they are destined for failure. Life isn't easy and it's sad to think they are so quick to walk away from something that so many men and women have died to secure and protect for so many years.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I get your point . . .

but if I were 18 looking at the state of the nation today, it would be very tempting to say screw it and go skateboarding. Deficits and debt forever. Lies, greed, corruption, incompetence and ignorance as far as the eye can see. Rich old white people calling all the shots.

And then just when you thought something important was possible, a brokered convention that puts a penultimate insider (Hillary) up against Grandpa McBush?

I'm not going to check out, but like I said . . . if I were 18? I'd seriously be calling bullshit.

It's OK to seriously call

bull shit now....no matter what age. It's not OK to check out and it's not OK for us to let our kids throw up their hands and quit. It's just not OK. Heh...you check out and I'll come drag your ass kicking and screaming back. I promise. :D

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Betsy, you know I love you.

and you know if I start a post with that, I'm going to disagree with you.

people who don't deserve this democracy.

They don't deserve it? Seriously?

What was that document I read? You know the one. The Declaration of Independence. In the second paragraph, you'll find the phrase that is making me wonder.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

It doesn't say that all men are created equal, but only they have to prove that they are deserving of certain rights before they get them. There are no literacy tests, there are no poll tests. There's no fee to vote. There are no requirements other than a voter be 18, a citizen of the US, and in some states, not a felon.

We don't give out democracy based on who deserves it. Otherwise there'd be a lot of people who wouldn't be able to vote.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Yup, seriously

I'm entitled to my opinion Linda and you can quote any document you want and do your best to ridicule me but I stand by what I said. In my opinion, anyone who would intentionally hand this country back to Republicans because they're too fucking weak to stand up for what is really important doesn't deserve this democracy. They'd rather go wring their hands, moan, groan and whine about how life isn't fair because their guy didn't win than do the hard work it takes to keep taking our country back. I never said they should be denied this democracy. I said they didn't deserve it. Big difference, Linda. Big, big difference.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I wasn't trying to ridicule you Betsy.

I believe that, unfortunately, part of Democracy, is the right to abstain. I don't like it any more than you do.

I'm working with a bunch of teens, too. The group gets bigger every week. For the first time, it's mixed racially. For the first time, I've had girls show up - and that will bring in more of the guys. That's truly exciting in this county. I've got debaters, skateboarders, rappers, D students, dropouts,and the top of the class. And they're all in it. I've got to find a bigger place to meet next week. Most of them are primed to go to their precinct meetings next week. How shocked will their precinct leaders be! I'm doing everything I can to get them involved and keep them involved.

But they're not in it for Clinton, I'm afraid. Except for 2 of them, none of them were registered to vote before Obama burst onto the scene. Now, I'm working to get them excited about state races so that even if Hillary winds up as the nominee, we'll still have some excitement and involvement in the General.

I don't like it - but I can't negate their feelings. It's what they think, it's the passion that is getting them involved in the first place. They've all got friends at this point who have enlisted and gone overseas. Some of them have parents who are overseas as well. At our last meeting, we discussed the differences in policies of the different candidates (based on the speeches they had made) and what would happen if x were elected vs. y. I don't lead these discussions - they do. I'm only there, believe it or not, to keep the language to a cleanish level.

Anyhow - I wasn't trying to ridicule you. Sorry if it seemed that way. You have a right to your opinion.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Just to jump in here

1- Yes, Hillary will hurt down-ticket.

2- Yes, a lot of Dems will not vote if Hillary is the nominee, for a variety of reasons, especially if she takes the Supers after losing more states, the popular vote, and delegates.

3- Here is where I attempt to predict the upcoming primaries with no regard to delegate count:

Wyoming- Obama +5
Mississippi- Obama +12
Pennsylvania- Clinton +10
Indiana- Obama +3
North Carolina- Obama +5
West Virginia- Clinton +1
Kentucky- Clinton +1
Oregon- Obama +2
Montana- Obama +5
PR and Guam- Obama +8 combined

I base this on personal opinion, regardless of polling data. Also, I think that Hillary stays in until May 6, and then drops out after the Indiana and NC losses.

I think she's in it till Denver.

She opined on one of the morning shows yesterday that "the Sooper Delegates were supposed to overrule the will of the people; it's in the rools." My response to the TV was that if its also in the rules that Michigan and Florida don't count, and you can't have it both way, Mz. Clinton. Make up yer mind, ma'am. What your doing - this splitting of political hairs - isn't what I look for in a preznit.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi